Deeper conferences. More games. An even tougher road to the national championship under the 12-team College Football Playoff format set to debut this season.
It’s become harder than ever to post an unbeaten record. That’s why there isn’t one team — not Ohio State, not Texas, not even Georgia — picked to run the table in the USA TODAY Sports record projections for every Bowl Subdivision conference.
The Bulldogs are still the favorite in the SEC, followed by the Longhorns, Alabama, LSU and Mississippi. The Buckeyes and Oregon are projected to lead the way in the Big Ten. Utah is the clubhouse leader in the new-look Big 12, while Clemson and Florida State will fight for the top spot in the ACC.
Among the Group of Five, no team is picked to put together a stronger playoff case than Memphis. But keep an eye on Liberty coming out of Conference USA and Sun Belt favorites Appalachian State and James Madison.
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ACC record projection
Clemson’s projected improvement on offense barely nudges the Tigers ahead of the Seminoles. But don’t sleep on North Carolina State, angling for the second 10-win season in program history, and fast-rising Virginia Tech. Miami and North Carolina have the talent to surge past our eight-win projections, though the Hurricanes could just as easily disappoint, as we’ve seen. The league adds in new members SMU, California and Stanford.
Big 12 record projection
The league has a vastly different look with the addition of several former Pac-12 members. One, Utah, is the preseason favorite. Kansas State has a new quarterback in Avery Johnson but the same benchmark of at least eight wins in the regular season. UCF and Kansas are just behind the Utes and Wildcats, as are Oklahoma State and Iowa State. And what about Colorado? The Buffaloes will be better in Deion Sanders’ second year, but not quite good enough to get to six wins in our projections.
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Big Ten record projection
There’s terrific depth through the top seven or eight teams, a group that includes a rejuvenated Nebraska under coach Matt Rhule. But the story of the Big Ten is right at the top. While the conference should get at least two teams in the playoff field, the race between Ohio State and Oregon for the Big Ten crown should be one of the best in the FBS. Penn State and Michigan are also in the mix, though the defending champs are a bit of an unknown given the program’s many changes since January.
SEC record projection
Georgia. Texas. Alabama. LSU. Mississippi. Tennessee. Oklahoma. (We could keep going.) It’s obvious the SEC is the strongest conference in the FBS, a few steps ahead of even the very impressive Big Ten. While the Bulldogs are the preseason favorite, there’s little room separating teams in this top group. Down the conference standings, Texas A&M is picked to get back into bowl play under new coach Mike Elko, Auburn is pegged for a rebound in Hugh Freeze’s second year and Florida is expected to struggle to get to six wins against a brutal schedule.
Group of Five
American Athletic record projection
Memphis is picked to run the table through the American, with the one loss coming against Florida State in non-conference play. At 11-1 and the conference champs, the Tigers would be a no-brainer pick as the Group of Five representative in the playoff. Texas-San Antonio and Tulane don’t look as strong on paper but could win eight or more games. The AAC should have a solid middle tier composed of South Florida, Army, East Carolina and Florida Atlantic.
Conference USA record projection
Conference USA features a hodgepodge of teams led by preseason favorites Liberty and Western Kentucky. The Flames shouldn’t lose in league play, though non-conference games against ECU and Appalachian State won’t be easy. The conference also features some of the weakest teams in the FBS. That includes Kennesaw State, which is in its first year transitioning from the Championship Subdivision and is not eligible for the conference title.
Independents and Pac-12 record projection
A terrific defense, the potential spark from new quarterback Riley Leonard and a friendly schedule paints Notre Dame as one of the nation’s top playoff contenders. The Fighting Irish have to hit the ground running in the season opener at Texas A&M, the first of three or four games — joining Louisville, Florida State and Southern California — that will decide their season. While Oregon State and Washington State will play this season as members of the Pac-12, we included them in this space because neither team will play a true conference schedule.
MAC record projection
Toledo and Miami (Ohio) are picked to be neck-and-neck all season as the top teams in the MAC. But don’t sleep on Ohio and Bowling Green; the Falcons had a breakthrough in 2023 and could take another step up the conference ladder. We have seven MAC teams getting to bowl eligibility, one more than last season.
Mountain West record projection
Boise State’s biggest threat for the MWC title was supposed to be Fresno State, but it’s harder to predict the Bulldogs to win more than eight games after coach Jeff Tedford stepped down for health reasons in July. Instead, the Broncos top the standings ahead of UNLV, one of last season’s most pleasant surprises. Right behind this pair come Air Force and Wyoming, followed by the Bulldogs and Colorado State.
Sun Belt record projection
This may be the best league top to bottom in the Group of Five. The Sun Belt’s top half is so solid, in fact, that the league champion might not have the overall record to match up with the winner of the AAC. Appalachian State, James Madison and Troy lead the way, with the Dukes (Bob Chesney) and Trojans (Gerad Parker) looking to stay on track under new head coaches. While we have eight teams at six or more wins, the SBC could put 10 or more teams into bowl play for the second year in a row.