In one sense, the playoffs have already begun for the Denver Broncos.
Win and they’re in. Lose and it is sudden death.
That’s the essence of playoff football. The end of the season is on the line.
Then again, when the Broncos (9-7) host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday with the chance to clinch the final wild-card berth in the AFC playoffs, there’s a key reason why the matchup falls so short of a virtual postseason matchup: Both teams don’t have to win.
I mean, the Chiefs (15-1) won’t be playing with Patrick Mahomes.
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What a break for the Broncos. Chiefs coach Andy Reid, with the No. 1 seed locked up, will rest Mahomes and other key players. Maybe in a weird way, Denver is owed such a favor from the Department of Karma. In Week 10, when Mahomes was on the field, the Broncos nearly upset the Chiefs on their own turf, except that Leo Chenel blocked a Will Lutz field goal attempt as time expired.
Talk about a trap game.
It’s too bad it’s come down to this for Sean Payton & Co. For the third consecutive week, the Broncos have a shot at clinching a playoff berth. And for the third straight week they can try finishing strong and saving face. Lately, that has not been Denver’s forte. And now it might prove to perfectly symbolize a season that has come with bright spots including rookie quarterback Bo Nix and a defense that leads the NFL with a franchise-record 56 sacks but has been undermined by faulty finishes.
They blew an 11-point second half lead in falling at the L.A. Chargers in Week 16, then last weekend lost in overtime at Cincinnati, when they didn’t make a single first down on two OT possessions.
Blow it on Sunday (with the Bengals and Dolphins looking for their own breaks) and the Broncos will walk off as one of the NFL’s biggest collapses in recent seasons.
Of course, it starts at the top. Payton, in his second season as Broncos coach, has changed the culture as promised. After kicking Russell Wilson to the curb, his first-round selection of Nix and the development of the rookie has been more impressive when considering the Broncos have the NFL’s longest active streak, 33 games, without a 100-yard rusher. He has Denver in position to claim the franchise’s first playoff berth in nine seasons, since it capped the 2015 campaign by winning Super Bowl 50.
Yet Payton might have already clinched that playoff berth if he had elected to go for two at the end of regulation, rather than playing for overtime and kicking a PAT.
Sure, in hindsight, it’s easy to second-guess his decision. He has, too.
“Based on the outcome, you always second-guess,” Payton said during a press conference this week. “I know I kind of felt I trusted my gut in that moment.”
Think of what happened to set up the decision. Nix escaped a sack and heaved a prayer on fourth down that Mims snagged between two Bengals defenders. The too-close-to-call instant replay decision came back in Denver’s favor.
If there was anytime for Payton to press his luck (or assert his genius), that was it.
But his gut wouldn’t let him do it? Go figure. The conservative PAT decision came from a man who pulled off one of the gutsiest calls in Super Bowl history in calling for an onside kick to open the second half of the New Orleans Saints win against Peyton Manning the Indianapolis Colts in Super Bowl 44.
Sure, he played last week with a rookie quarterback who has thrown six interceptions in the past four games. But a week after being so aggressive in losing against the Chargers, the flip in Payton’s crunch time strategy was baffling.
By going for the two points, Payton would have given his team a chance for what could have essentially been a walk-off win, without putting the ball back in the hands of the red-hot Joe Burrow. As it turned out, they still lost.
Now what? At least Payton and his team have another week to claim a playoff berth – or else. He talked this week about the big sign players see each time they enter the locker room at the Broncos headquarters. It reads: Keep Fighting.
“I like the grit on this team,” Payton said.
Well, here’s another message that I’m guessing, with next week not promised, Payton will embrace as their leader.
No guts, no glory.
NBC’s Team?
Since the end of the 2022 season, when they drew a spicy (and pivotal) Week 18 matchup at Lambeau Field in the NFL’s regular season finale, the Detroit Lions are poised for their seventh appearance on NBC for a key primetime matchup on “Sunday Night Football” or a playoff game.
That’s a nugget that Lions fans can appreciate, but it can easily be overlooked amid the historic ramifications of the matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, when the two 14-2 teams meet with the most victories ever (28) for a regular-season game.
From 2006 (when NBC returned to broadcasting the NFL) to 2022, Detroit had just nine such showcase games. Now the Lions are about to get a seventh showing in 38 games.
And it might be a good omen: In six games under Dan Campbell broadcast by NBC, the Lions are 6-0.
Quick slants
Odd, but true: Browns defensive end Myles Garrett is the first player in NFL history to post at least 14 sacks in four consecutive seasons. Ironically, he’s never led the league in sacks. Garrett heads into the finale at Baltimore tied with Cincinnati’s Trey Hendrickson for the NFL lead.
Lamar Jackson and Sam Darnold: Both head into Week 18 one game shy of matching the NFL record that Aaron Rodgers set in 2020 with 14 games with a 100 passer rating or better. Jackson, the Ravens star, had an NFL-best 121.6 rating through 17 weeks, while Darnold’s revival with the Minnesota Vikings is also marked by a 106.4 clip that is fifth in the league. Rodgers, by the way, ranks 20th with an 89.1 rating that is his lowest for a season since he became a starter in 2008.