Penn State gives off 2023 Michigan vibes. Put it this way: Jim Harbaugh could win a national title with this Penn State team. What about James Franklin?
Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman describes Orange Bowl opponent Penn State as ‘talented, disciplined, tough.’ All true.
James Franklin’s history in big games might explain why Penn State has longest odds of winning national championship among CFP semifinal teams.
College football’s bards mused this playoff lacked a dominant team, like 2019 LSU or 2020 Alabama, although Ohio State sprints closer to resembling those past juggernauts.
What about 2023 Michigan, though? Anyone guilty of being the Wolverines’ doppelganger? You know, that team that went undefeated a year ago, but doesn’t garner the same respect as some recent champions from the SEC? (Michigan’s cheating might have something to do with that.)
Look inside the Big Ten to spot a potential Michigan 2.0.
I give you Penn State.
Let’s tour the Nittany Lions:
∎ Bruising defense, equipped with dudes who wreak havoc and live in the opponent’s backfield.
∎ Two splendid running backs, one as good as the other.
∎ A pass attack that highlights a tight end suited for the NFL.
Stop me if this sounds familiar. Should I keep going? OK.
∎ A veteran quarterback enjoying a career-best season.
∎ Dependable offensive line.
∎ Efficient in the red zone.
Who’s this sounding like? It’s sounding like 2023 Michigan.
Penn State can replicate Michigan if James Franklin shakes past
A key difference is that Michigan enjoyed undefeated distinction, while Penn State lost to Ohio State and Oregon.
Another difference? Penn State employs no one in a cheap disguise stealing the opponent’s signs.
But, the absence of a Connor Stalions doesn’t much influence Penn State as much as the presence of James Franklin. His baggage in big games introduces an overdose of doubt toward the Nittany Lions.
Why do sportsbooks give Penn State the longest odds of winning the national championship? Franklin’s paltry performance in games of magnitude, like Penn State’s Orange Bowl matchup with Notre Dame on Thursday, must play a factor.
Ohio State fans grumble about Ryan Day’s flops, but Day’s shortcomings mostly center on one opponent. He stinks against Michigan, but you won’t find Michigan in this playoff.
In the absence of their kryptonite, Day and the Buckeyes emerged stronger in the postseason. Day never has faced his Cotton Bowl adversary, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian, but he’s a combined 8-0 against the two coaches opposite Ohio State on the bracket, Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman and Penn State’s Franklin.
Day beat Franklin for the sixth consecutive time in November, when his Buckeyes emerged from Happy Valley with a 20-13 victory. A game that started with the Nittany Lions building a 10-point lead ended with Franklin shouting at a heckling fan while the coach exited the field.
As good as Penn State looked in its first two playoff victories, those results didn’t reverse Franklin’s narrative in marquee games. No one would mistake SMU for Notre Dame. No blue blood runs in Boise State’s veins, only blue turf.
Examination of Penn State’s playoff victories, though, reveals shades of Michigan.
“It’s a very talented, disciplined, tough football team,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said of Penn State. “Very creative offense. Utilizes a bunch of different personnel, a bunch of different formations. Going to force you to be extremely disciplined.”
That’s not coach-speak. Freeman accurately described Penn State, and facing Franklin’s squad will be a lot like looking in the mirror for Notre Dame.
THREE KEYS: Breaking down the Notre Dame-Penn State matchup
Notre Dame the type of team that beats James Franklin
Here’s the quiet part no opposing coach would say out loud: Franklin shrivels against opponents of Notre Dame’s stature. He becomes a bespectacled turtle upon sight of a big dog. He’s pitiful against top-five teams and the biggest brands.
Penn State fans won’t need this reminder, but for the rest of us, consider Franklin’s Penn State record against these opponents:
vs. Ohio State: 1-10
vs. Michigan: 3-7
vs. Michigan State: 5-5
vs. SEC opponents: 2-4
Franklin avoided embarrassment by smashing SMU and handling Boise State. He’d earn respect by beating Notre Dame.
Trust Penn State in Orange Bowl means trusting James Franklin
Jim Harbaugh performed woefully bad in the postseason before winning the national championship. You don’t win the big game until you do. Michigan’s khaki king never won a College Football Playoff game until he burned his blaze of victories last season, not stopping before he’d left for the NFL.
Kirby Smart and Dabo Swinney are college football’s only active coaches to have won national championships, meaning that no matter who’s celebrating on Jan. 20 in Atlanta, a coach will have captured his first national title.
Could it be Franklin? The team’s makeup indicates yes. It’s not the most complete left in the bracket – looking at you, Buckeyes – but Penn State resembles 2023 Michigan, and 2023 Michigan would contend in this tournament.
Previously, I’ve labeled Penn State a light beer version of 2023 Michigan, but there have been plenty of games this season in which the Nittany Lions played like a full-bodied brew, and there’s nothing watered down about Penn State’s superstar tight end Tyler Warren or defensive menaces Abdul Carter and Kobe King.
Put it this way: Harbaugh could win a national championship with this Penn State team.
I like the team. I just don’t entirely trust the coach.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.