What surprises does the wild-card round of the NFL playoffs have in store?
With six games over three days, some unexpected developments are bound to surface. Yet the slate appears somewhat lopsided on the whole, with four of the games producing consensus winners among USA TODAY Sports’ group of six prognosticators. But every year, the road to the Super Bowl almost unfailingly features a few unexpected turns, with one looking need no further than last year’s stunning turns from the Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the opening round for evidence of how quickly assumptions about the field can be upended.
With that in mind, here are USA TODAY Sports’ bold predictions for this year’s wild-card round:
Justin Fields will produce his first touchdown since October
With the win-or-go-home stakes of the NFL playoffs, the Pittsburgh Steelers can’t leave any stone unturned if they hope to spring the biggest upset of wild-card weekend and knock off the Baltimore Ravens. Sure, creativity has not been the calling card for Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. I mean, the toss-sweeps to Cordarrelle Patterson have not cut it. But Fields, who opened the season as the starter, will be the ideal change-up to Russell Wilson when it gets tight at the Big ATM.
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Fields hasn’t played since the Week 15 loss at Philadelphia, when he suffered an abdominal injury. But he’s fully healthy now, which is why it was so puzzling that Mike Tomlin, via Smith, didn’t use the mobile option when back-to-back short-yardage plays backfired during last weekend’s loss against the Cincinnati Bengals. Wilson still needs to do the heavy lifting — especially if George Pickens can hang onto the ‘moonballs’ and other passes from the veteran quarterback. Yet Fields needs to hit the field, too, for special situations such as short-yardage or goal-line snaps. And shoot, maybe they can even surprise the Ravens a pass or two from Fields. He last saw the end zone, twice, on sparkling runs against the Raiders during his last start on Oct. 13 — a week after he passed for two touchdowns against the Cowboys. So, maybe it’s time.
Bottom line, they’ll need some creative thinking. And never mind the potential for a QB controversy. If Fields plays and it helps Pittsburgh get a victory, there’s always next week to fan the flames of a QB debate. Right now, though, it’s a matter of survival.
— Jarrett Bell
Jalen Hurts throws for 4 TDs in comeback from concussion
The last time the Philadelphia Eagles quarterback threw a pass was the first quarter of a Week 16 game against the Washington Commanders. Hurts has sat out the last 11 quarters with a concussion and returned to practice this week, and signs point to him returning under center against the Green Bay Packers.
That four scores could come via Hurts’ arm with running back Saquon Barkley sharing the backfield seems illogical. Even in Hurts’ case, he had 18 passing touchdowns in 15 starts this season compared to 14 rushing TDs.
Hurts didn’t pass for more than two touchdowns in any game this season, and he’s only thrown four touchdowns twice in his career. But the smart thing for the Eagles to do would be to limit the number of hits he takes, and that could result in “Tush Push” deployments. More goal line targets for A.J. Brown or a quick screen to DeVonta Smith might be the safer option, unless head coach Nick Sirianni wants to risk trotting Kenny Pickett (or Tanner McKee) out there should something happen to Hurts.
Two of Hurts’ five interceptions in 2024 came in the season opener in Brazil against the Packers, and Green Bay safety Xavier McKinney will be ball-hawking. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore should come up with a plan that keeps the ball out of the middle of the field, which is how Hurts and the Eagles operate normally anyway. With no cornerback Jaire Alexander, Green Bay’s pass defense won’t be at full strength. Hurts, even if he has to shake off some rust in the beginning, could have a big day airing it out.
— Chris Bumbaca
C.J. Stroud gets sacked eight times as Chargers edge rushers wreck game
The Texans’ Will Anderson Jr. (11 sacks) and Danielle Hunter (12) were the only pair of AFC teammates with at least 11 sacks. However, it won’t be Houston’s pass rushing duo with the big game on Saturday. Anderson and Hunter are going to have a difficult time trying to get around Chargers stout left tackle Rashawn Slater and standout rookie right tackle Joe Alt. It’ll be the Chargers pass rushers who wreck the AFC wild-card game. Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa will combine for five of Los Angeles’ eight sacks as the Chargers take advantage of a leaky Texans offensive line.
Texans QB C.J. Stroud was sacked an AFC-high 52 times during the regular season. The Texans don’t have great pass protection outside of left tackle Laremy Tunsil. The Texans’ poor offensive line will play a pivotal role in their home playoff loss.
— Tyler Dragon
Bucky Irving seizes rookie spotlight from Jayden Daniels
The NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year award was seemingly sewn up long ago by Daniels, the Washington Commanders’ outstanding catalyst behind center. But for one night, Irving, the Tampa Buccaneers’ breakout ball carrier, might get his due in the national spotlight.
With offensive coordinator Liam Coen at the controls, the fourth-round pick out of Oregon has been one of the keys to turning around the league’s worst rushing attack in the previous two seasons into a top five ground game. In rushing for 1,122 yards and eight touchdowns as a rookie, Irving has joined Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb as just the third back in the last 10 years to average more than 4 yards after contact while logging at least 150 carries in a year, according to the 33rd Team.
That doesn’t bode well for a Washington defensive front that ranks 30th in rushing yards per game with 137.5. With at least 17 touches in six of his last seven games, expect Irving to again be a featured presence. The 5-10, 194-pounder’s penchant for forcing missed tackles could help Tampa Bay reel off some big gains and create more favorable looks for Baker Mayfield and the aerial attack – all while keeping Daniels off the field for long stretches.
— Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz