Sam Darnold picked the right time to have a career year. But in the coming weeks, that’s likely to create unique dilemmas for both the 27-year-old quarterback and the Minnesota Vikings.
A Pro Bowler for the first time this season, Darnold’s latest opportunity to build the case he’s finally blossomed into the franchise QB he was forecast to be when the New York Jets made him the third overall pick of the 2018 draft will come Monday night – when the Vikings play the Los Angeles Rams in the final wild-card game of the 2024 playoffs. It will mark the first postseason start for Darnold, who set an NFL record among quarterbacks by earning 14 wins in his first season with a team, Minnesota already the fourth of his seven-year career.
‘(I)t’s exciting, man, to be able to step into an environment like we’re gonna step into on Monday night,’ Darnold said Thursday.
‘All the guys in that locker room are very excited about it, but we know and we understand that we have to put the work in this week to be able to go out there and earn that excitement that we’re going to feel on Monday night.’
(However the feelings will be somewhat mixed for Darnold, a Southern California native and USC product who’s also felt the effects of the wildfires ravaging the Los Angeles area.)
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But regardless of Monday’s outcome, sooner or later the Vikings and/or Darnold must come to a decision about their relationship with his one-year, $10 million contract set to run out. He joined the team last March after spending the 2023 campaign as a backup for the San Francisco 49ers and was joined a few weeks later by J.J. McCarthy, whom Minnesota made the 10th overall pick of last year’s draft. Darnold earned rave reviews in the offseason before inheriting the starting job by default when McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury in preseason.
But good luck finding almost anyone who predicted what followed: Minnesota (14-3) tied for the league’s third-best record, largely propelled by Darnold’s breakthrough. His 4,319 yards and 35 TDs through the air plus a 102.5 passer rating were all career highs by an exponential deviation. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has regularly praised him as a leader, competitor and reliable decision-maker.
Soon enough, Darnold and the team will have to assess their relative options following a campaign that could be a one-year wonder, might be indicative that he’s put it all together, or perhaps something in between – the right player finding the right situation to maximize his talents. What’s not in doubt is the way Darnold, who’s typically been well liked by teammates regardless of disappointing results earlier in his career, has been embraced by this locker room and staff.
“Just to see how he’s ultimately been able to maximize everything about his opportunity, our football team loves him for it,” O’Connell said after last month’s defeat of the Green Bay Packers, in which Darnold threw for a career-best 377 yards and was mobbed by teammates and doused with water afterward in an uproarious locker room.
“I’ve had an absolute blast coaching him.”
So what’s next? Darnold and the Vikings are basically looking at three options – and there is some added variance – before landing on a resolution, though one seems to be the obvious choice:
Sam Darnold leaves in free agency
Perhaps the Vikings let him walk, and perhaps that would be his preference. McCarthy was clearly selected with the objective that he’d be the long-term replacement for Kirk Cousins, who departed for the Atlanta Falcons last year. The Michigan product displayed, albeit briefly, the athleticism and composure during his preseason action that would suggest he might just be capable to translate his championship-caliber résumé with the Wolverines to the NFL … at some point.
Meanwhile, with the quarterback crop in the 2025 draft seemingly far more limited than the previous one – McCarthy might well have been the No. 1 pick had he waited to go pro this year – Darnold could be highly coveted given the supply-and-demand dynamics of team sports’ most high-profile position. And while it’s highly unlikely he’d sniff the $60 million-per-year bar set by the Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott last September, it’s quite probable that Darnold would significantly outstrip the mid-tier QB pact his 2018 draftmate and former Carolina Panthers teammate, Baker Mayfield, took while re-signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2024 for three years and $100 million.
If the Vikings don’t want to be in a more expensive neighborhood than that, they can turn over the keys to McCarthy, reap a third-round compensatory pick in 2026 – maybe keep reclamation project Daniel Jones around as the McCarthy insurance plan – and let Darnold leave for what might or might not be greener pastures if almost assuredly a greener bank account.
Sam Darnold re-signs with Vikings
The depth of Minnesota’s playoff run will doubtless heavily influence Darnold’s future with the franchise – particularly after his disappointing performance in the Week 18 loss at Detroit cost the Vikes the NFC North title and No. 1 playoff seed.
“He just kept proving himself,” former New York Giants vice president of player personnel and longtime NFL scout Marc Ross told USA TODAY Sports. “If they go on a nice run, and he balls out again, they gotta lock this guy up.”
And given how the Mayfield marriage with the Bucs has flourished, why not? While the appeal of building a roster around a quarterback on a rookie contract is alluring, so is the prospect of a young passer who can be in town for a protracted period – without necessarily commandeering the salary cap – assuming the staff and front office are comfortable he’s a reliable commodity vis-à-vis McCarthy, who’s never taken a regular-season snap and hardly had to carry a talented Michigan squad for two seasons.
“I think the level of confidence that that group has in their quarterback and the level of confidence the quarterback has in the 10 guys in the huddle is significant,” O’Connell said last month.
Sam Darnold and the franchise tag
It makes a lot of sense on a lot of levels and seems like the only logical decision, at least in the near term – even if it’s just the catalyst in a multi-step sequence.
Franchising Darnold, presumably with the non-exclusive tag, opens up a world of possibilities:
He doesn’t depart for well below the market rate of a Pro Bowl-caliber QB1.
Darnold would be guaranteed, at minimum, the biggest payday of his career – something in the neighborhood of $40+ million for the 2025 season, and that’s likely only a starting point.
If the Vikings don’t intend to retain him and operate completely from the standpoint of their own self-interests, the tag could incite a bidding war and outside offer sheet – which would return two first-round picks if Darnold signs and Minnesota doesn’t match it.
Minnesota could also leverage Darnold and help him simultaneously, the tag also permitting GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to simply shop his services to interested suitors – especially ones Darnold might prefer – and still getting a handsome return on the investment, whether it’s players, draft picks or a combination thereof.
As with most players who are tagged, the mechanism could merely be the opening move of a longer process which still ends with both parties agreeing to a multi-year extension.
And it could also simply mean one more season for Darnold in the Twin Cities while further assessing McCarthy’s progress.
One other compelling route the tag can potentially create is a trade market for McCarthy – again, the 2025 draft is not expected to be a bountiful one when it comes to quarterbacks – while talks with Darnold can unfold in parallel.
“At the very worst, you’re going to keep (Darnold) in some kind of way. Franchise him, that’s the floor for him. Judge the market, and see if they can get a haul for him,” says Ross.
“With the dearth of quarterbacks in the draft, teams are gonna be desperate as can be. I mean, Sam Darnold’s gonna be the guy, you’re gonna have people fall over themselves to get him. That only works into the Vikings’ favor.’
And should only fuel one of the more fascinating offseason quarterback quandaries in years.
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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.