The first half of the 2024-25 NBA season saw the rise of an unexpected contender – the Cleveland Cavaliers have the league’s best record – just like it saw a perennial power, the Golden State Warriors, stumble late.
There’s still so much basketball left, however, that pretty much anything can happen in the second half. And the Feb. 6 trading deadline presents a chance for teams to drastically alter the courses their seasons will take.
That means players like Jimmy Butler, Zion Williamson and Zach LaVine could find themselves in new locations playing for contenders – all of which sets up for a compelling second half.
Eight bold predictions for the second half of the 2024-25 NBA season.
Jimmy Butler will land in Phoenix … and the Suns still will miss the playoffs
As momentum builds for a Jimmy Butler trade to Phoenix – the Suns acquired tradable first-round picks in a supplementary trade with the Jazz on Tuesday – the situation with Butler in Miami is seemingly becoming more unsustainable. And while Butler presents a slight upgrade over Bradley Beal, the fit alongside Kevin Durant and Devin Booker will almost certainly need some time to materialize. One potential issue, aside from Butler’s diminished production and age (35), is that he – like Durant and Booker – also thrives when the ball is in his hands. At a minimum, Butler should be engaged, at least far more than he was in his final days with the Heat. But the Suns (21-21) are 10th in the West, and Butler will not fix the team’s massive lack of depth.
The New York Knicks will reach the Eastern Conference finals
The Knicks have not played in the Eastern Conference finals since 2000. They have been close in the past two seasons but can’t break through. The Knicks have lost five of their past 10, and, yes, their defense has hit something of a midseason wall – they rank 24th in the past 10 games in defensive rating (116.5 points allowed per 100 possessions). But the Knicks also have several things going for them that should make them considerable threats in the East, even with the Cavaliers (36-6) and Celtics (30-13) looming. For one, they have a cohesive starting unit that has an absurdly high number of minutes on the floor together – a total of 1,632 minutes, 183 more than the next closest group.
For Golden State Warriors, it’s going to get worse before it gets better
Their 12-3 start seems so distant. Golden State, now facing injury issues, is reeling, with losses in 18 of its past 27 games. Stephen Curry is still an elite player, but his ability to finish at the rim has diminished, and he can no longer mask the team’s weaknesses. Finishing at the rim is a larger issue; the only teams with a lower two-point shooting percentage are the New Orleans Pelicans and Charlotte Hornets. Although Jonathan Kuminga showed some promise, the team may be looking to shop him. And, if it’s an indication of where the team is, Golden State could potentially be sellers before the Feb. 6 trade deadline.
It’s Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals
Excusing Cleveland’s 134-114 loss to Oklahoma City on January 16, these are the two best teams in the NBA. Both are deep, have outstanding coaches and a well-constructed blend of stars and role players, including the potential NBA MVP in Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Such a matchup would be a referendum on what’s possible for small- and mid-market teams, roster construction and the league’s collective-bargaining agreement that attempts to foster parity/competitive balance.
Either Memphis Grizzlies or Houston Rockets will reach Western finals
Houston is in second place and Memphis is in third place in the West, and one will advance to the conference finals. Heck, they will play each other for a spot in the conference finals. The Rockets have one of the best young cores in the league, and the Grizzlies were headed in that direction before Ja Morant’s gun-related suspension in June of 2023 and recent injury. Memphis hasn’t played in a conference final since 2013, during the Grit and Grind era featuring Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Tony Allen. Houston last reached the conference finals in 2018 and hasn’t reached the playoffs since 2020, but this is a rebuilt team under general manager Rafael Stone and second-year coach Ime Udoka. Top players Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore and Jabari Smith Jr. are all 22 or younger. Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and Jeff Green provide veteran leadership.
Forget the play-in, the Sacramento Kings will finish with a top 3 seed in the West
Sacramento, finally, has found its identity. The Kings (22-20) have won nine of their last 10 games and have launched their turnaround on defense. Over that span, Sacramento ranks fourth in the NBA in defensive rating (108.7) and is just 4.6 points per 100 possessions off the No. 1 team, the Thunder. Guard Keon Ellis has been unleashed as a backcourt clamp-down defender, rotational help defense has been crisper and everyone is being asked to swarm and deflect balls. Coupled with the offensive firepower of De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis and DeMar DeRozan, the Kings have the pieces in place to go on a run.
Boston Celtics won’t reach the NBA Finals to defend title
The Celtics have been among the best teams in the league for most of the past 10 years – most victories, six conference finals, two NBA finals and the 2024 championship since 2015. They have the talent – perhaps the best starting five in the league led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown – and depth – Payton Pritchard is a leading Sixth Man of the Year candidate – and they know how to finish a series. Though the Celtics are the betting favorites and defending champions, winning consecutive titles is difficult. It hasn’t happened since Golden State in 2017 and 2018, and no team has even reached the Finals in consecutive seasons since the Warriors in 2018 and 2019.
Los Angeles Lakers fail to get out of the first round – again
Since LeBron James arrived in 2018, the Lakers have made the playoffs four times, losing in the first round in 2024 and 2021, winning the title in 2020 and reaching the conference finals in 2023. This season, a play-in game situation is possible, and a lower seed in the first round is likely. Unless the Lakers make a notable trade-deadline deal, it’s difficult seeing them make a deep run in the West. By record (22-18) and stats (No. 13 offensively, No. 24 defensively), they are barely an above-average team. In sixth place in the West, the Lakers are closer to 11th place than they are fourth place.