North Carolina could almost taste it.
For much of the season, the Tar Heels couldn’t get the job done against top-tier opponents. They’d come close, only to fall short and miss out on getting a signature victory.
Needing that mark on their resume, North Carolina hosted heated rival and national championship contender Duke in the regular-season finale. A golden opportunity to prove it belongs in the NCAA Tournament.
Early in the second half, it looked like North Carolina would finally get it done. It had limited Cooper Flagg’s impact on the game and with a seven-point lead, the Dean Dome crowd was in a frenzy. A win − and a spot in March Madness − was in sight.
But as has been the case so many times this season, it all fell apart. The sleeping giant in the Blue Devils woke up and decided to dash dreams. Duke closed the final 13 minutes on a 29-10 run and sucked any life out of those in Carolina Blue en route to an 82-69 victory.
Don’t let the 20-12 record fool you. Thirteen wins came against Quad 3 and 4 opponents, and only one − against UCLA in December − was against a likely March Madness squad. In Quad 1 games, North Carolina entered the night a horrid 1-10. Even with the name on the front of the jersey, North Carolina needed to prove it could beat a quality opponent after failing to do so time and time again.
One of the first four teams out in the latest version of USA TODAY Sports’ Bracketology, a win could’ve catapulted North Carolina into the projected field and fix what’s been a frustrating campaign for Hubert Davis. Instead, the chance was wasted yet again. There’s nothing impressive about its 20-win season.
Barring a perfect run through the ACC tournament, it will be two missed NCAA Tournaments in three seasons for North Carolina, far from the standard expectations in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels fell short when they couldn’t afford it. They lead the bubble winners and losers on the final weekend of the regular season.
Winners
Indiana
What an incredible send-off for Mike Woodson. Coaching in his final home game at Assembly Hall, Indiana overcame a sluggish start against Ohio State with an emphatic finish. A 15-3 run midway through the second half got Indiana back in the game, and a 12-0 run in the final minutes helped cap off the come-from-behind victory to get the season sweep over Ohio State in one of the most pivotal bubble games played Saturday.
The late surge toward a spot in the NCAA Tournament is very much alive for Indiana, shaking off the collapse at Oregon on Tuesday to get its fourth victory in the last five games. The Quad 2 victory pushed the Hoosiers to 5-0 in such games, and it’s notable because even though they have 12 losses, they all came against Quad 1 opponents − they don’t have any bad losses. Plus, they made a case to take Ohio State’s spot in the field. The win gave Indiana the No. 9 seed in the Big Ten tournament to avoid the first round and set up a second-round matchup against the Ducks. The Hoosiers fell just short in their meeting earlier in the week; if they can change their fortune, the Big Dance could be in the cards.
Oklahoma
What a week it was in Norman as Oklahoma snatched two Quad 1 victories to end the regular season. The cherry on top is the last one, which came on rival Texas’ home court. It was a back-and-forth contest that showed how desperate each team was for a win, but Brycen Goodine’s 3-pointer with just over two minutes to go extended the lead to six points and the Sooners were able to hold off the Longhorns the rest of the way for the statement victory.
Things looked grim for Oklahoma heading into the week with six losses in its last seven games, resulting in it being pushed out of the projected bracket. But now, mix Saturday’s win with the one over Missouri on Wednesday and the Sooners are now 6-10 in Quad 1 games. Their chances are much higher.
There’s still plenty of work needed, and it won’t be easy with Georgia in the first round of the SEC tournament and Kentucky awaiting the winner. But Oklahoma was the first team out and Texas was the last team in the field. A flip-flop could be happening; the Sooners could start the final week before Selection Sunday with a First Four projection.
Arkansas
As RJ Melendez’s potential game-winning shot for Mississippi State bounced off the rim, Arkansas felt itself inching closer to dancing. The Razorbacks survived a chaotic ending with a one-point victory over the Bulldogs. A strong start to the second half looked like it would lead to a convincing Arkansas win, but a late 12-0 run from the Bulldogs flipped the script and had the Hogs sweating. Luckily, some clutch shots and a free throw from Jonas Aidoo with 11 seconds left were enough to avoid a disastrous end of the regular season.
Arkansas recovered from the disastrous loss to South Carolina a week ago with two quality wins against Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. The loss to the Gamecocks pushed the Razorbacks back to the bubble. They needed a perfect week to avoid having a shaky fate. One Quad 1 and 2 win each does wonders for John Calipari’s team, and gave them great positioning in the SEC tournament. It will get a crack to avenge the defeat to South Carolina in the opening round. A win in that game may just be enough to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
Losers
Ohio State
The win was right in Ohio State’s hands, but it let it slip away when it couldn’t afford to. Entering a hostile environment at Indiana, the Buckeyes settled the crowd down early and Indiana could only muster up nine points in the first 12 minutes. They stayed ahead for much of afternoon and led by 10 points in the second half. Then mistakes happened, Indiana got back in the game and Ohio State could only watch pandemonium unfold inside Assembly Hall. The Buckeyes didn’t hit a field goal in the last five minutes in the six-point loss.
Ohio State couldn’t build off the double-overtime win over Nebraska earlier in the week and missed out on a golden chance to secure its seventh Quad 1 win of the season. Now, the Buckeyes are 6-12 in the category. Their 14 total losses are the most among at-large candidates. As a First Four candidate, Ohio State could see itself fall out of the field and will need an impressive outing in the Big Ten tournament to stay alive. Playing against the No. 15 seed in the first round, that means getting two wins, and possibly a third.
Texas
The Longhorns are going to be haunted by what transpired at home. They uncharacteristically turned the ball over too much, which resulted in 21 Oklahoma points, including the final one that came on a failed last-second shot. It was a night Tre Johnson would love to forget. The Longhorns star has become a potential NBA talent this season, but he was completely off as he 0-for-14 from the field, with all seven of his points coming from the free throw line. An unusual night at the worst time for Texas.
Texas was the last team slated to make the NCAA Tournament, but that spot is likely gone thanks to Saturday’s loss. It was a chance to even its Quad 2 record, but instead it’s now at 3-5. A win could’ve given Texas some cushion on the bubble, but instead it’s now in a must-win situation heading into the SEC tournament. It doesn’t get an easy first matchup with Vanderbilt scheduled on Wednesday, a team it already lost to earlier this season. If the Longhorns want a shot at the NCAA Tournament, it will have to fix their mistakes immediately.
Boise State
Boise State dropped a critical home contest against Colorado State on Friday night. It was back-and-forth for much of the first half and the Broncos had a nine-point lead with 11 minutes to go, but the Rams closed the contest on an impressive 32-13 run for a 10-point victory.
It was a crushing defeat for a Boise State team that entered the night with five straight wins and was gaining momentum toward an NCAA Tournament spot. One of the last four teams in the field, the Quad 2 loss pushes its combined Quad 1 and 2 record to 6-7 and it’s now No. 49 in the NET rankings. While Colorado State is a good team that will be the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament, it isn’t projected to be an at-large tournament squad and those are teams Boise State has to beat. Now, with its March Madness hopes hanging in the balance, the Broncos must have a successful Mountain West tournament. It won’t be easy with San Diego State awaiting them in the quarterfinals.