If the college basketball season was a court case, it’s time for teams on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament to make their closing arguments to the jury − or the selection committee.
Conference tournaments are in full swing across the country and teams that aren’t a lock to make March Madness have one last chance to prove why they should be dancing next week. Teams projected to be in need to maintain their spot, while teams on the outside of the field need to be very impressive in order to insert themselves in the bracket. Tournament fates could be determined every day leading up to Selection Sunday.
Several teams on the bubble of the USA TODAY Sports Bracketology are starting their conference tournament action on Wednesday, and the rest will begin on Thursday. Here’s a tracker of teams playing today and how their results affect their tournament outlook.
BRACKETOLOGY: Race for No. 1 seeds, bubble spots heats up
TOURNAMENT PREVIEWS: SEC | Big Ten | ACC | Big 12 | Big East
Ohio State’s loss to Iowa likely takes out Buckeyes
After hovering around the cutline for so long, Ohio State’s season will likely end in disappointment with its tournament hopes are all but dead after a loss to Iowa in the opening round of the Big Ten tournament. It was a back-and-forth contest for much of the night, but in the final minutes, sloppy mistakes by Ohio State led to a 7-0 run from the Hawkeyes.
Ohio State entered the week in the First Four territory but needed at least a win on Wednesday to keep its place. Instead, the Buckeyes get a Quad 2 loss, nearly a cardinal sin when it comes to conference tournaments.
For as ugly the 17-15 record is, teams with 15 losses have made the tournament before − as recently Florida in 2019. What’s helped the Buckeyes stay alive is their No. 37 NET ranking. But ending the season with a Quad 2 loss that gives a team a losing record in the category and in Quad 1? Expect the Buckeyes to be among the teams to not see their name in the bracket on Sunday.
Arkansas survives major scare from South Carolina
Nearly every Arkansas fan can’t deny they were sweating late in the second half against South Carolina, surviving a comeback attempt from the Gamecocks that could have put the team’s tournament chances in jeopardy.
Playing against a team it lost to less than two weeks ago, Arkansas came out of the gates like it wasn’t going to let it happen again. It ended the first half on an 11-0 run to take a 17-point lead at halftime, and led by 20 points early in the second half.
But as South Carolina has done so much this season, despite the conference-worst record, the Gamecocks didn’t quit. They went on a 12-0 run in a five minute span to close the deficit to one point and cause some stress for Arkansas. Luckily, the Hogs didn’t fold and won a tight 72-68 contest.
The Razorbacks weren’t exactly on the bubble entering this week − a No. 10 seed − after a strong regular season finish, but its tournament spot wasn’t solidified either. A second loss to South Carolina and a one-and-done appearance in the SEC tournament would’ve been disastrous. Instead, Arkansas holds on and has pretty much secured a tournament spot.
Texas uses defense to get past Vanderbilt
As a first four out team, Texas needed a win against Vanderbilt in the first round of the SEC tournament to retain any hope of making the field. The Longhorns played with intensity right out of the gate and it carried them to a 79-72 win over the Commodores.
Vanderbilt has one of the better scoring offenses in the country, but it was a struggle to find buckets in the first half while Texas dominated the post and controlled the boards. Texas led by 18 points with nine minutes left and was able to hang one.
The win gives keeps the Longhorns alive and gives them a sixth Quad 1 victory. A massive opportunity awaits in the second round Thursday against Texas A&M. Texas has beaten the Aggies before, and a second victory against its rival might be enough to its season.
Oklahoma’s late run too much for Georgia
The Sooners weren’t going to be another ‘last four in’ team to lose on Wednesday, overcoming a sluggish start to the second half against Georgia with a late run to take down the Bulldogs, 81-75.
Oklahoma was making it rain from downtown in the first half with 10 3-pointers in the first 20 minutes — a big reason why it led at halftime. But Georgia, which has played exceptionally well recently, came out of the break on the run to take a six-point lead and the momentum away. Instead of folding, freshman guard Jeremiah Fears put the Sooners on his back and was key in a 16-0 run that gave Oklahoma a 10-point lead with three minutes left. Georgia couldn’t recover. Fears ended the night with 29 points.
The win was the third straight Quad 1 victory for an Oklahoma team that has drastically improved its stock over the past 10 days, and has a case to move out of First Four territory. Beating Kentucky on Thursday would certainly do that, since it would give the Sooners eight Quad 1 wins. A note from Wednesday night: head coach Porter Moser wore shoes signed by Toby Keith for good luck. The kicks could be the charm to get the Sooners comfortably in the field.
North Carolina handles business to stay alive
A miracle run in the ACC tournament will be needed for North Carolina, and the Tar Heels got step one done with a comfortable takedown of Notre Dame. North Carolina never trailed in the contest and led by double-digits throughout the contest, leading by as much as 24 points.
One of the first four teams out, the win over the Fighting Irish won’t do much to boost the resume but was necessary to keep the door open. It must beat Wake Forest on Thursday, and a potential semifinal matchup against Duke on Friday will ultimately be its make-or-break game.
West Virginia suffers consequential loss
What started off as a great surprise season for West Virginia ended on a sour note with a loss to Big 12 cellar-dweller Colorado in the second round. The Mountaineers controlled much of the first half, but turnovers were an issue in the second half and a 15-0 run by the Buffaloes gave them a lead they would hold onto for a 67-60 win.
It’s a devastating loss for a West Virginia team that likely will fall to a double-digit seed in the tournament and inching closer to the bubble. Not only is the loss to Colorado a Quad 2 defeat, it’s now 10-13 in Quad 1 and 2 games. West Virginia should be in, but depending on other results, could end up being a No. 11 seed thanks to Wednesday’s disaster.