Duke enters Final Four as a worthy favorite, but how can you ignore Houston’s experience, defense and grit? Beware the upset!
March Madness delivered less madness, but that gives way to what could be epic Final Four.
Rick Barnes will retain spot on one particular college basketball Mount Rushmore, but either Kelvin Sampson or Bruce Pearl could be preparing for an exit off list.
Auburn, Florida, Houston and Duke proved better than their peers throughout the regular season. They earned uncontroversial No. 1 seeds.
Once March Madness begins, it operates under no duty to respect regular-season results.
This became one of those rare tournaments, though, in which the nation’s four best teams turned back Cinderella, tamed the madness and supplied a Final Four that will be a two-round showcase of the nation’s elite.
All four No. 1 seeds advanced to the Final Four for just the second time in tournament history. With apology to the defeated underdogs, I relish these matchups that offer the foundation for an epic Final Four, following a somewhat mundane tournament – at least by March Madness’ riveting standards.
Here are five burning thoughts and predictions before the Final Four begins Saturday in San Antonio:
SEC lives up to its reputation during March Madness
After the SEC qualified an NCAA-record 14 teams, the tournament would help settle the debate of whether the SEC delivered the greatest season ever for a conference. And while debate continues, know this: The SEC lived up to its reputation for being far and away the best conference this season, if not all-time.
The SEC started shakily, but after cutting loose six teams before the second round, the SEC’s cream rose to the top and proved mighty sweet. By comparison, the Big Ten went 8-0 in the first round, then faded badly before the home stretch. Big Ten teams finished 13-8, with only Michigan State reaching the Elite Eight and none making the Final Four.
In defense of the Big Ten, it could have been much worse. (See the Big East for details.)
The SEC takes a 21-12 record into the Final Four. Never mind the losses. After qualifying 14 teams, it became guaranteed the SEC would produce a minimum of 13 losses.
The SEC accounted for seven Sweet 16 spots, then supplied half of the Elite Eight and half of the Final Four. That’s success.
The tournament performance elevates the SEC past the 2011 Big East, which earned 11 NCAA bids but produced a modest 13-10 record, although UConn won the national championship.
So, the SEC becomes the conference GOAT?
Well, the 1985 Big East still deserves a loud word in this conversation. It qualified six of nine teams for the inaugural 64-team tournament, then dominated the event. The ’85 Big East remains the only conference to supply three Final Four teams, and No. 8 Villanova beat No. 1 Georgetown in the national championship. The Big East supplied an 18-5 record in that tournament.
At the very least, this tournament cemented that the SEC deserves a seat at a small table honoring the best seasons ever by a conference – and perhaps the head seat at that table.
A certain Mount Rushmore might soon require an update
Before the tournament tipped, I honored Gonzaga’s Mark Few, Houston’s Kelvin Sampson, Auburn’s Bruce Pearl and Tennessee’s Rick Barnes on my Mount Rushmore of best active coaches without a national championship.
This will not rank as one of Few’s best teams, and Gonzaga bowed out the second round.
Barnes delivered another solid season, a lofty NCAA seed, and a tournament in which his Vols couldn’t supply an NCAA Tournament upset to reach an elusive Final Four. Consider that the Barnes special.
The Vols underachieved in March Madness under Barnes from 2018-23, before back-to-back Elite Eight finishes in which they played to their No. 2 seeding.
Houston outplayed Tennessee from start to finish Sunday. Barnes has only once ever beaten a better-seeded team in the NCAA Tournament, back in 2002 at Texas, when his sixth-seeded Longhorns upset No. 3 Mississippi State to reach the Sweet 16.
Tennessee joins Xavier, Missouri and Brigham Young on the Mount Rushmore of best programs to never reach a Final Four, with Creighton also under consideration for that distinction.
Sampson has reiterated his credentials as a linchpin member of my Mount Rushmore of best coaches without a championship. His experienced Cougars are dogged on defense and sharp shooters on offense. Sampson’s inbounds play that produced the winning basket against Purdue in the Sweet 16 provided a coaching masterclass.
Pearl has Auburn playing with the spirit of an underdog, but the talent of a frontrunner. That’s a dangerous combination.
With two members of my Mount Rushmore alive in the Final Four, Oregon’s Dana Altman might need to prepare his résumé for consideration, because I might soon need to replace Sampson or Pearl, after one hangs a championship banner.
Duke a worthy Final Four frontrunner
Oddsmakers like Duke to win the championship. If you’ve watched Duke play in this tournament, you know that’s based on more than Duke’s blue blood.
Duke keeps performing like the juggernaut analytics guru Ken Pomeroy says it is. Cooper Flagg looks the part of national player of the year. Kon Knueppel and Tyrese Proctor join Flagg to form a three-headed monster nobody’s come close to stopping.
Duke has lost just once since November. The other team with that distinction? Houston, its next opponent.
Build a balanced team to make a Final Four
It’s no secret how to make a Final Four: Build a team that can win in multiple ways, that’s comfortable winning in the 60s or the 80s. Each of these Final Four teams ranks in the top 10 nationally of Pomeroy’s metrics for both offensive and defensive efficiency.
By comparison, the teams that lost in the Elite Eight were markedly better at one end of the court than the other. That showed when the competition ratcheted up.
National championship prediction: Houston beats Florida
I predicted this outcome on Selection Sunday, and I’m not fading it now, not after how strong Houston looked while smashing Tennessee. I could make compelling cases for Duke, Auburn or Florida winning the crown, so why am I picking Houston?
I gravitate to experience in the NCAA Tournament, and I’m further pulled toward playmaking guards. Houston and Florida are filled with experience and shot-making guards.
Florida’s Walton Clayton Jr. is a clutch bucket waiting to happen. Nobody defends better than Houston, and the Cougars go five-deep with players who can score in double figures.
I’m tempted to flip my pick to Florida, because of how well Clayton is playing, but I’m riding with Houston’s defense, its experience and Sampson’s coaching.
Blake Toppmeyer is a columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.