WASHINGTON — One hundred games into a season is typically long past time a ballclub has its identity firmly established. Yet the San Diego Padres know it’s not too late to show the world exactly how good they are.
And more specifically, to prove to club president A.J. Preller that their squad is worthy of the aggressive moves for which he’s so renowned.
“We need to show him what we’re capable of,” All-Star outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. tells USA TODAY Sports, “to see what kind of bold move he’ll make.”
For now, the Padres have proven they’re playoff caliber: They hold down the final wild card spot in the National League and lurk just 3 ½ games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.
They began the second half by winning two of three games at Washington, the start of a 10-game humidity tour that will afford them climate-controlled indoor baseball in Miami before four games at St. Louis precede a return to San Diego’s saner dew points.
It was on this almost exact trip last year – also the first after the All-Star break – that the Padres won seven of nine games, going from .500 team to a club that gave the Dodgers the hardest punch of the playoffs before losing a five-game NL Division Series.
And after that post-break burst, Preller juiced up the bullpen, swinging deals to land All-Star relievers Jason Adam and Tanner Scott, a just reward for a club that earned it.
Now, these Padres face something of a last dance. Oh, it’s never over in San Diego, not when veterans like Manny Machado ($350 million through 2033), Xander Bogaerts ($280 million, 2033) and Tatis ($340 million, 2034) are wrapped up well into the next decade, and eight other players locked into multi-year deals through at least 2027.
But a mini-window of sorts is closing: Starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Michael King, the major pieces of their pivot to deal Juan Soto to the New York Yankees, are free agents after this season.
The extent to which San Diego attempts to retain them this winter, or backfill the rotation via free agency, should be telling about the near-term fate of the franchise, which lost its franchise scion when owner Peter Seidler passed away in November 2023.
While overflow crowds at Petco Park and the many long-term commitments ensure the Padres will stay competitive, coming years may suggest a re-tooling or at least easing the foot up on the gas.
For now, though, there’s still a pennant to chase, and a case to make.
“This is the stretch,” says Cease, who shrugged off a first half in which he posted a 4.88 ERA to strike out 10 in his first start after the break. “Obviously all the games are important. But this is really, probably going to define who we’re going to be at the end of the day.”
With a president of baseball operations surely watching closely.
“I don’t think in terms of that,” says Cease, “but the better position we’re in you know the more aggressive he’s probably more willing to be.
“But he’s probably going to be aggressive either way.”
And Preller would be augmenting a club that, despite its 54-45 record, knows there’s a little more in the tank.
‘Didn’t let ’em breathe’
The Padres were hard to miss at the July 15 All-Star Game, what with five representatives led by Tatis and MVP candidate Manny Machado.
Yet the remainder of their reps came from one unit: The bullpen.
They were well-earned nods, with Robert Suárez leading the majors with 28 saves and Adam (2.05 ERA) and lefty Adrian Morejon (1.83 ERA, 0.81 WHIP) dominant almost every time out.
Yet Adam and Morejon have already pitched in 48 games, one less than the major league leaders in that category. Jeremiah Estrada has logged 47 appearances.
And the Padres have played 55 games decided by two runs or less, second-most in the majors.
Fortunately, they’re 34-21 in such games, yet the bullpen has burned a lot of high-leverage fuel to prop them up, and the sustainability questions will swirl if there are any late-inning hiccups.
To put it bluntly: The Padres need to start kicking some teams’ butts.
“Didn’t let ‘em breathe,” an approving manager Mike Shildt said after the Padres jumped the Nationals in an 8-1 victory to claim the series Sunday. “If we continue to do that – we add on – watch out.
“This team will be even more dangerous than it already is.”
That victory was jump-started by Machado and Tatis drawing first-inning walks and Bogaerts jumping All-Star MacKenzie Gore for a first-inning grand slam; it was 5-0 after one inning and 8-0 after three.
And it continued Bogaerts’ tear; he’s raised his batting average 40 points since June 19, his .382 average second in the majors in that stretch.
Bogaerts, who turns 33 Oct. 1, has had an uneven first two years in San Diego, his OPS falling 102 points to .688 last season. Yet he’s back at his familiar shortstop post and exemplifying this Padre group’s ethos: Make good swing decisions, get the ball in play, catch the ball and run the bases aggressively and smartly.
Bogaerts’ 16.2% strikeout rate is his best since 2015, when he was 22 and in his first full season with Boston. The Padres’ 695 strikeouts are fewest in the NL – 68 less than the nearest playoff contender, the Cubs.
“Just trying to swing at strikes,” says Bogaerts, who has stolen 16 bases in 17 attempts. “Keep working and keeping the same routine.”
Shildt is a bit more effusive.
“Just looks under control. Balanced. Everything looks smooth. He’s got a lot of (stolen bases), right there with Tati. And he’s playing as good a shortstop as anybody in baseball.
“We’re getting an All-Star version of Bogey.”
A division shot, a shot in the arm
As they pass the 100-game mark in Miami, the Padres can feel good in who they are, and what is at stake.
“I know we have a good team,’ says Bogaerts. ‘We have to play some really good baseball. We have a tough stretch coming up and a big second half, so hopefully we can get there.”
Indeed, 29 of their next 35 games are against teams with winning records; the Padres are just 20-32 against teams better than .500 this season.
Things aren’t optimal, but you can see help from here. King, currently on the injured list with a pinched nerve in his right shoulder, is throwing bullpen sessions and hopes for an August return. In his stead, Nick Pivetta – signed when the veteran righty hit a free agent road bump due to the qualifying offer – is pitching better than he has in his nine-year career.
Jackson Merrill, who probably should have won NL Rookie of the Year honors last year, has been slowed by a pair of IL stints yet still has a runway to salvage the rest of his sophomore season. And for better or worse, they’ll be done with the Dodgers by Aug. 24 after playing them six times in a 10-game stretch.
Of their final 27 games, 10 are against the Colorado Rockies and Chicago White Sox, the two worst teams in baseball.
“We have a chance to win the division out here,” says Tatis. “We got a lot of baseball ahead of us. It’s a matter of taking care of business and staying consistent.”
And then there is the deadline. The Padres’ needs are not unlike almost every other contender: A starting pitcher. Another outfield or DH bat, preferably right-handed. And perhaps another reliever, though the Padres are dealing from a position of strength rather than the relief misery many other clubs find themselves in.
“There is great talent in this room,” says catcher Martin Maldonado, the 38-year-old veteran of six Houston Astros playoff runs. “The pitching staff is amazing.”
In fact, the Padres believe, whatever additions arrive can only build upon something solid. Perhaps they will push them to a division title, a round deeper in the playoffs. Point is, the Padres have put themselves in position to reap those rewards.
“Almost every facet of the game we’ve been good,” says Shildt, citing the consistency of the team’s at-bats as the last piece to slide into place.
“I do feel like we’re in a good spot and trending to a great spot.”