- It is too early to determine if Oklahoma is a playoff contender despite their win over Michigan.
- South Florida has built a strong playoff resume with early wins against Boise State and Florida.
- The Big 12 and ACC conferences have had a difficult start to the season against non-conference opponents.
We’ve now seen most teams in college football’s top division in action at least twice. That’s still quite a small sample size, and given the high percentage of them who have thus far enjoyed a diet consisting entirely of cupcakes there aren’t a lot of meaningful conclusions to be drawn at this early stage.
Naturally, that doesn’t stop observers from doing just that. We’re here once again to help sort the overreactions from the true causes for concern or elation. This much we can say without fear of contradiction – there is no such thing as an uneventful week in this sport.
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Oklahoma is playoff bound
Slow down there, good buddy. The Sooners did win the lone showdown of ranked teams on this week’s schedule. While that might bode well for their second run through the SEC, there’s a lot we need to learn before the value of the Michigan victory can be fully assessed. First and foremost, Michigan is not projected to finish in the Big Ten’s top echelon. The OU defense made life difficult for touted Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood, but he is a true freshman who was making his first collegiate start away from home. The Sooners are going to encounter numerous passers with more game experience over the course of the long trek through the SEC.
Please don’t misunderstand. Sooners’ fans should absolutely enjoy the result. But we shouldn’t make bold pronouncements until we have more data.
South Florida already has a playoff resume
One would be hard pressed to name another team in the Bowl Subdivision that has accomplished more than the Bulls through the first two weeks of the campaign. By taking down Boise State and Florida, the Bulls have vanquished a primary challenger from another non-power conference and earned a rare triumph against the SEC. They have yet another chance for a splashy win at Miami next week, but even if the run ends there they’ll already have a case for the committee that will be hard for anyone in the so-called group-of-five to match.
That assumes, of course, that they go on to win the American, which isn’t going to be automatic even with their early success. USF’s league slate includes possible road traps at defending champion Memphis and Navy. We can say, though, that at this juncture the Bulls have the inside track and can definitely dare to dream.
Oregon should be ranked ahead of Penn State
Speaking of the Big Ten, most poll voters, media and coaches alike, are in agreement that Ohio State is rightly positioned as the No. 1 team. The Buckeyes are still the reigning national champions, after all, and the Week 1 win against Texas is the best result among the projected contenders. But it’s fair to wonder if the team slotted behind them is the correct one.
To be sure, neither Penn State nor Oregon have been in danger of losing. But the Ducks have arguably looked the part more than the Nittany Lions. The Oregon offense has resembled a high-powered sportscar, while Penn State’s has been more akin to a Diesel truck that takes longer to get up to speed. The Ducks furthermore have at least faced a member of another so-called power conference, albeit one that will likely finish near the bottom. The good news is neither fan base will have long to wait, as the argument will be settled on the field at the end of this month.
The Big 12 is terrible
Well, let’s just say it wasn’t a great day at the league office. It got off to a good start with Iowa State’s rivalry win against Iowa, and Baylor’s comeback victory at SMU was another bright spot. But five non-conference losses, including preseason favorite Arizona State’s stumble at Mississippi State – nobody’s idea of an SEC contender – capped a rough first couple of weeks for a conference already fighting for relevance in the expanded playoff era. It’s too early to doom the conference to one-bid status once again, but a path to multiple berths is getting harder to envision.
The ACC is worse
But the Big 12 can’t expect to receive any sympathy bouquets from ACC headquarters. SMU’s afore-mentioned double-OT setback against Baylor was part of a 0-5 week for the conference against the rest of the Power Four, a list that also includes Duke’s five-turnover self-immolation against Illinois and Virginia Tech’s second-half no-show against Vanderbilt. Those three results occurred on ACC home turf, making the collective pill even tougher to swallow. Clemson was able to avert disaster against Troy, but Tiger fans didn’t exactly leave Death Valley with a positive outlook either. The silver lining for the league is that Florida State and Miami still have those big wins from Week 1 in the bank.
In short, it’s been a rough couple of weeks for those hoping to challenge SEC and Big Ten dominance. It should, however, put to rest once and for all the notion that the top two leagues need guaranteed playoff spots. The at-large process will take care of itself.