- No. 2 Penn State’s upcoming game against No. 5 Oregon is a critical test of their national championship potential.
- The Nittany Lions’ non-conference schedule against weaker opponents has provided little insight into their ability to compete with top-tier teams.
- Coach James Franklin and quarterback Drew Allar are under significant pressure to perform well in this high-stakes matchup.
This is the moment for James Franklin and No. 2 Penn State.
No. 1 Ohio State looms in early November. Should the current US LBM Coaches Poll hold, the Nittany Lions’ trip to Columbus would be the Big Ten’s first No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup since Ohio State and Michigan faced off in 2006. No. 12 Indiana comes to Beaver Stadium a week later.
Those games will decide the Big Ten standings and which teams meet for the conference championship. But no game on Penn State’s schedule will influence the regular season more than Saturday’s home game against No. 5 Oregon, a high-profile and high-stakes matchup that will help answer one of the biggest questions of this season:
Are the Nittany Lions really built to capture the program’s first national championship in almost 40 years?
Did Penn State schedule prepare it for Oregon?
Don’t look to non-conference play for any answers on the Nittany Lions. Games against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova were one-sided blowouts, as expected, giving little insight into how Penn State will perform against one of the best teams in the Bowl Subdivision.
The Nittany Lions are the only team in this week’s Coaches Poll to have not played at least one Power Four opponent and one of two without a Power Four win, joining No. 7 Texas.
Despite the overmatched competition, the Nittany Lions’ offense heads into Saturday ranked just 41st nationally in yards per play and 46th in yards per game. While the offense has seemingly been purposefully vanilla and has rarely played starters in the fourth quarter, the relative lack of production stands in contrast to last year’s explosive performance in non-conference play.
“I don’t know if saving is the idea, but you’ve done some offseason studies where there are certain things that you worked on during training camp that you’re planning on using against certain opponents,” Franklin said.
“And there’s some things, could you have used them early in the season but you didn’t feel like you needed to? Yeah, I think that’s always the case. But it’s not like offensive coordinators, defense coordinators, head coaches, you’re going into a game saying we’re going to be conservative in this game. Or vanilla.”
The performance in the first three games is in stark contrast to last season’s opening schedule. In 2024, the Nittany Lions averaged 8.1 yards per play in games against West Virginia, Bowling Green and Kent State. Quarterback Drew Allar had 11 touchdowns and averaged 12.3 yards per attempt, compared to five scores and 7.4 yards per pass through the first three games of this season. Another warning sign has come on third down: PSU’s conversion rate of just 38.9% ranks 77th in the FBS.
“I think it’s always an ongoing process throughout the year no matter what,” Allar said. “I don’t think you ever find yourself in the spot you want to be, really throughout the whole year. We’re always going to be a constantly evolving offense.”
Experience, a deep cast of skill talent, a dramatically improved offensive front and the framework for another top-ranked defense have framed the Nittany Lions as one of the elite teams in the Power Four. But the Ducks will put this theory to the test.
Oregon continues to dominate in regular season
This easy stretch to open September ends against an opponent that has yet to lose a regular-season Big Ten game since joining the conference last year.
Oregon entered the debut 12-team College Football Playoff as the only unbeaten team in the FBS before losing in its Rose Bowl quarterfinal to eventual national champion Ohio State. The Ducks closed out the regular season by beating Penn State 45-37 for the Big Ten championship.
Oregon has already played a pair of Power Four teams in Oklahoma State and Northwestern along with a rivalry win against Oregon State. The Ducks have an average margin of victory of 41.5 points per game.
Nearly every metric puts Oregon at or near the top of the FBS. The Ducks are one of two teams in the top eight nationally in scoring offense and defense, along with Indiana. They’ve given up just one sack and committed only 14 penalties, including a penalty-free game against the Wildcats. Defensively, Oregon has given up just four touchdowns and is one of four teams to not allow a touchdown through the air.
“Going against a team like this is going to be fun for sure,” wide receiver Penn State Kyron Hudson said.
This makes Oregon the ultimate test of the Nittany Lions’ fitness as a title contender. This is an opponent with no obvious weaknesses, one that has already proven itself to be the best team in college football – after all, the Ducks spent weeks of last season as the unquestioned No. 1.
“Tremendous challenge. Tremendous opportunity,” said Franklin. “You know, obviously we need this place rocking. Need to have a distinct home-field advantage. We always do, but I’m expecting this to be an environment like no one has ever seen.”
James Franklin, Drew Allar under pressure
No two individuals carry as much weight and pressure into Saturday as Allar and Franklin.
The senior quarterback went into the offseason shouldering the blame for the Nittany Lions’ 27-24 loss to Notre Dame in the national semifinals. With the game tied and under a minute to play, Allar made a misguided attempt over the middle of the field that was intercepted by the Fighting Irish, setting up the go-ahead field goal with seven seconds to play.
Now in his third year as the starter and already established as one of the top passers in program history, Allar’s performance in non-conference play suggests some carryover from that disappointing finish.
But beating Oregon and outplaying sophomore counterpart Dante Moore would erase any lingering fallout from his late interception against the Irish and reestablish Allar as one of the top quarterbacks in the FBS.
A win would also rewrite the narrative around the Nittany Lions’ failures against top-ranked competition. All three of last year’s losses – Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame – came against top-five competition.
“I just think we’re in a much different place in terms of the confidence and the execution that it takes to play in these type of games,” Franklin said.
But losses against top competition have come to define his tenure. While the Nittany Lions have won 71.2% of their games since Franklin was hired in 2014, Franklin is just 1-13 in matchups against opponents in the top five of the Associated Press poll, with the one win coming against Ohio State in 2016.
Losing to Oregon would stoke additional skepticism over Franklin’s ability to lead Penn State over the hurdle separating the very good teams in the Power Four from the very best. In a more concrete sense, a loss would require the Nittany Lions to split those November games against the Buckeyes and Hoosiers and win out otherwise to guarantee an at-large playoff berth.
But the impact of a win on Saturday can’t be overstated. Franklin would get the result his program has craved for nearly a decade. The Nittany Lions would have a case for replacing Ohio State atop the US LBM Coaches Poll; beating Oregon would be more impressive than the Buckeyes’ win against No. 7 Texas in the season opener.
And a win would answer the question: Penn State is ready to beat the best of the best and is built to bring home a national championship.
“I think all these types of games come down to four to six plays on offense, four to six plays on defense,” said Franklin. “I expect this to be a four-quarter battle that’s going to come down to the end of the game. And I like how we’re preparing to handle the moment.”