How will this year’s World Series play out? Using the Dynasty League Baseball online simulation, USA TODAY Sports’ Steve Gardner and DLB designer Mike Cieslinski will pre-play each game to provide some insight into the key matchups and strategy fans can expect to see in the Fall Classic.
One thing we know about the 2025 World Series is that it’s going back to Toronto. However, that wasn’t a done deal as the teams prepared for Sim Series Game 5.
The virtual Blue Jays were seemingly playing with house money after winning the first two games at Dodger Stadium. But the home team wasn’t going to fold, especially with veteran ace Blake Snell on the mound against 22-year-old Trey Yesavage. Meanwhile, all eyes were on each team’s biggest star hitter, both of whom have been struggling at the plate the entire series.
Dodgers vs Blue Jays Game 5 simulation
When he took the mound in Toronto earlier in the Sim Series, Blue Jays right-hander Trey Yesavage looked like an overmatched rookie, walking six of the 10 batters he faced in the first inning and giving up five runs. Yesavage was much more comfortable in his second start as his teammates staked him to an early lead on Daulton Varsho’s RBI single in the second inning.
The Dodgers pulled even with a two-out rally in the third. With runners at first and second, Freddie Freeman drilled a liner back up the middle that Yesavage couldn’t flag as Andy Pages came around to score.
In the fourth inning, Dodger third baseman Max Muncy launched a Yesavage fastball 448 feet to dead center to put L.A. in front 2-1. But the lead was short-lived as the Jays staged a two-out rally of their own when Addison Barger reached on an infield single and Andres Gimenez doubled him home.
The back-and-forth lead changes would be a recurring theme throughout Game 5.
The Dodgers’ Pages led off the fifth with a home run to even the score. Vladimir Guerrero, who to that point was hitting just .105 in the series, hit a one-out double in the sixth and scored on Varsho’s two-run double as the Jays moved back in front. The Dodgers retied the game on Will Smith’s leadoff homer in the eighth as the tension continued to mount.
In the bottom of the ninth, with Louis Varland on the mound for the Jays, Pages struck again with a one-out double. That brought up Shohei Ohtani –hitting just .188 in the series, but still extremely dangerous in clutch situation. Of course, Toronto intentionally walked him to face Mookie Betts. The just-named Roberto Clemente Award winner calmly ripped a single to left and Pages sprinted home with the winning run.
BOX SCORE: Dodgers 5, Blue Jays 4
FULL PLAY-BY-PLAY: Betts walks it off for Dodgers in ninth
Blue Jays vs Dodgers Game 5 projections, analysis
So what does our simulation tell us about what we can expect when the real Game 5 takes place?
- Battle of the bullpens: Another close game comes down to the Dodgers having the home-field advantage in Game 5. Whether it’s the bottom of the ninth (or the bottom of the 18th), the home team just has to push across that go-ahead run and the game is over. Louis Varland has probably been the Blue Jays’ most consistent reliever (and certainly the most consistently used). He’s the guy they want out there with the game on the line … It’s just that the Dodgers have so many ways to beat you. In Sim Series Game 5, Betts got the job done with his one-out RBI single. If he hadn’t, however, clutch hitters Freddie Freeman and Will Smith were right behind him.
- Reins on the rookie: The biggest question for Toronto is how far to push Yesavage as he makes his second trip through the Dodger lineup. The scales tip significantly toward the hitters when facing a starting pitcher for a third time in a game. In Sim Series Game 5, Yesavage gave up a game-tying homer to No. 9 hitter Pages to tie the game in the bottom of the fifth – just before the lineup turned over for a third time.
- Dodgers’ lefty bats struggling: Though Ohtani is having a phenomenal postseason, especially at Dodger Stadium, he’s slumped in the Sim Series. In fact the Dodgers’ three big left-handed sluggers are all hitting under .200 through five games.
- Ohtani is at .188 with one extra-base hit
- Freeman is at .143 with a homer and three RBI
- Muncy is at .158 with two of his three hits home runs
- Yesavage vs. LHB: Those three lefty hitters could be the key to L.A. taking an early lead. Yesavage held left-handed batters to a .161/.257/.194 line over his three starts with Toronto during the regular season. (Though he did give up a home run to the Mariners’ Josh Naylor in the ALCS.) Yesavage’s final line in Sim Series Game 5: 4 ⅔ IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K.
- Vlad Jr. breaks out: It’s been a difficult Sim Series as well for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., similar to what he was experiencing in the actual World Series – until his huge home run off Ohtani in Game 4. Vlad was hitting just .110 in the Sim Series before igniting the Jays’ sixth-inning rally in Game 5. He added another single his next time up so perhaps that gets him going.
- Snell gets the whiffs: Toronto was the hardest team in the majors to strike out during the regular season. Dodgers starter Blake Snell has the highest strikeout rate in major league history (11.2 K/9) among pitchers who’ve thrown 1,000 innings. In our Game 5, Snell whiffed 10 batters in six innings, but he also gave up seven hits and four earned runs.
Previous 2025 Sim Series results
- Game 1: Blue Jays 9, Dodgers 1
- Game 2: Dodgers 12, Blue Jays 3
- Game 3: Blue Jays 5, Dodgers 4
- Game 4: Blue Jays 3, Dodgers 1