Only three weeks remain in college football’s regular season. But while that might not seem like much, in this sport three weeks can be an eternity.
The weather might feel cooler, but emotions are only heating up. So with a whole lot of matters yet to be determined on the field, there’s still room for overreaction even at this late stage of the campaign.
In our top five overreactions of Week 11, we’ll delve into a so-called Heisman moment in Happy Valley, an act of chicanery that still has folks buzzing, and the plight of a couple of entire conferences.
Fernando Mendoza just won the Heisman
Well, he almost certainly earned a trip to New York for the ceremony with that game-saving drive at Penn State, and he’d better give a shoutout to Omar Cooper Jr. in his acceptance speech if he does win the stiff-arm statue.
Let’s be clear on a couple of points, though. There shouldn’t be any such thing as a Heisman moment. Of course there are highlights and memorable plays central to any winning player’s season. But the award is supposed to be based on the candidate’s overall body of work during the year. With so many meaningful games to come, including the conference championship games that voters will also consider before submitting ballots, the trophy is not a done deal just yet.
Mendoza is undoubtedly at the head of the pack, and he’s delivered with the game on the line before. But it is also fair to point out that a couple of mistakes on his part contributed to his team needing that miraculous finish in order to stay undefeated. Hold those ballots until all the datapoints are in.
Southern California’s fake punt was the greatest trick play or heinous ethical violation
OK, in all honesty only the most die-hard Trojans’ fans are posing the first half of that dichotomy. But while our couching of the case against the trickery might be a bit over the top – this is Overreaction HQ, after all –, there was a rebuke from the Big Ten office.
To refresh everyone’s memory, USC lined up in punt formation on fourth-and-6 when its game with Northwestern was still tied at 7-7. But instead of the Trojans’ regular punter, a backup quarterback wearing the same number took the snap and completed a 10-yard pass for a first down. There are often multiple players with the same number on college rosters, but participants playing the same position cannot wear the same number during a game.
It can be argued that the letter of the rule was not violated since the pregame roster indicated both players as being assigned the number in question. But they shouldn’t have been allowed to do so, according to the Big Ten.
The ACC could miss the playoff
Strictly speaking, no conference champion is guaranteed a berth in the 12-team playoff. The format stipulates that the field will consist of the five highest-ranked conference champs with seven at-large teams. It was a bad weekend for the ACC’s highest-rated teams, but could the eventual winner really be just the sixth best qualifier and get left out altogether? It’s unlikely, but such a nightmare scenario is at least conceivable.
First and foremost, it’s worth remembering that no teams from outside the so-called power conferences appeared in the playoff committee’s initial top 25 last week, so it’s improbable representatives from two other leagues would overtake the ACC champ. Unless – a team with four losses already somehow wins the ACC, and yes, there is one that could do exactly that.
None of Duke’s three out-of-conference defeats are especially egregious, as Illinois, Tulane and Connecticut are all bowl-eligible. And, with just one league setback, the Blue Devils are still very much in the mix to play for the conference crown. Should they win it, and, say, Tulane – with a head-to-head victory over Duke remember – wins the American, and James Madison claims the Sun Belt title with a 12-1 overall mark?
There are a lot of ifs there, and it is worth pointing out that JMU’s lone loss came at the hands of Louisville, which might dissuade the committee from elevating the Dukes ahead of the ACC champ regardless. Furthermore, Hawaii might have removed another possible complication by beating San Diego State in the wee hours, leaving the Mountain West with no one-loss candidates. So there’s no need to panic at ACC headquarters yet, but these next three weeks are going to be a wild ride.
The Big 12 is still getting only one bid
Is the ACC’s loss the Big 12’s gain? Well, not necessarily. The committee clearly had a more favorable impression of the conference than it did at this time last season. But since Brigham Young wasn’t able to keep its game at Texas Tech competitive, the Cougars are likely to take a tumble in the next set of rankings. There might still be room for the Red Raiders and another conference member, but it might take some help.
Ironically, it might be an ACC member that provides that assistance. If Pittsburgh upends Notre Dame next week, handing the Fighting Irish a third loss in the process with one marquee wins to speak of, that might open up another at-large spot. Of course, there would be other candidates from the SEC and Big Ten trying to fill that potential opening as well, and, well, the Irish might not provide such an opening anyway. Which leads to the final consideration this week …
All Notre Dame has to do is get to 10-2 and it’s in
That’s probably the case given the initial rankings, though it would help if the past and future opponents of the Fighting Irish win some more games as well. Would a third loss be fatal? Perhaps not definitively so with other teams in the general vicinity also likely to take additional ‘L’s, but they’d be well advised not to tempt the fates.
The Pittsburgh game Saturday looms as the toughest assignment for Marcus Freeman’s team. Syracuse and Stanford to finish should be walkover, meaning we will know a lot more in this space next week.