Miami and Notre Dame are both 10-2.
So why have the Fighting Irish consistently been above the Hurricanes in the College Football Playoff rankings?
Good question. One we haven’t really gotten a good answer from the CFP committee yet. Other than ‘eye test’ and ‘good losses.’
And who knows? Maybe both get left out of the CFP.
Despite lopsided wins the past two weeks, Notre Dame dropped to No. 10 in last week’s CFP rankings. Miami remained at No. 12, but because of the ACC’s wacky tiebreaker system, Duke (7-5) has a chance to play for the ACC championship Saturday, while Miami has to sit and wait until Sunday’s Selection Show at noon.
If BYU (No. 11 in the CFP) beats Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship game, it likely spells doom for the remaining at-large hopefuls. No. 9 Alabama could also grab a guaranteed CFP spot with a win over Georgia in the SEC Championship game. A lopsided Alabama loss may crack the door open for the Irish or Hurricanes.
It’ll be a nervy Sunday in South Bend and South Beach.
Making case for Notre Dame football in CFP
‘Cause for concern? Cautious optimism? Maybe both,’ writes South Bend Tribune columnist Tom Noie.
‘Welcome to Notre Dame’s uncertain future. Like that, what many figured was a lock ― Notre Dame one of the 12 teams to earn invitations to the 2025 College Football Playoff ― suddenly isn’t. There’s a chance Notre Dame might be left out… The committee likes Notre Dame. It’s always liked Notre Dame. You get the sense that it wants Notre Dame in the field.
‘We think Notre Dame deserves to be in the 12-team field. We think that Notre Dame is a handful of teams ― maybe no more than five ― with a legitimate chance to win a national championship. Notre Dame started 0-2, but Notre Dame got better. The defense went from dubious that night in South Florida to borderline dominant. Jeremiyah Love became the nation’s best running back.
‘(Marcus) Freeman and his staff and his team believe they’re one of the 12 best teams in the country. They’re optimistic ― cautiously so in public, adamant in private ― that the selection committee will say the same. Even with that 0-2 start, Notre Dame got better, got confident and got rolling. It didn’t cling to what happened in Week 1. It went out and made it happen in Weeks 3 to 12.’
Notre Dame’s losses are considered ‘good losses’: to Texas A&M (No. 7 in CFP) and Miami. But if we’re giving credit to Notre Dame for losing to Miami, why aren’t we giving credit to Miami for beating Notre Dame?
Just weird.
Making a case for Miami in CFP
‘Putting Miami behind Notre Dame is the committee’s first head scratcher. Not a good look, or precedent. Not when the two have the same record (10-2) and a head-to-head result: Miami, 27-24,’ writes Tom D’Angelo of the Palm Beach Post.
‘Miami’s spot is more reflective of being the only team in the top 15 to lose twice to unranked teams (then and now) and beat two teams in the ACC with a winning record.’
The Hurricanes have won the past four games by an average score of 38-10, but can’t shake losses to Louisville and SMU in a three-week span before that.
The big albatross on Alabama’s resume is the season-opening 14-point loss to Florida State. Miami beat FSU, 28-22.
While Miami ranks highly in a lot of advanced metrics (ESPN has them No. 7 in FPI and No. 6 in its Game Control measurement), it sits at 14th in strength of resumé behind other bubble teams including BYU, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Texas and Notre Dame. The Hurricanes are also 44th in strength of schedule, close behind the No. 42 Irish but significantly farther behind fellow two-loss teams in Vandy (22), OU (12), Bama (11) and Texas (8).
But Notre Dame owns no wins against top-15 opponents. It feasted on a schedule that included last-place teams from three of the Power Four conferences.
“You get to settle it on the field, where head-to-head is always the No. 1 criteria,” Miami’s Mario Cristobal said.
Apparently not.
Palm Beach Post sports reporter David Rorabaugh contributed to this story.