Groundhog Day may still be a month away, but in baseball free agency, groundhog day has been going on for the past 64 days.
Virtually every day is the same.
Rumors are floated. Teams check in. Teams check out.
And most of the top free agents still remain unsigned.
Spring training starts in less than seven weeks, and the likes of Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman and Framber Valdez still remain unemployed.
It’s a market that gobbled up all of the top relievers in a hurry, with every available free agent closer, from Edwin Diaz (Los Angeles Dodgers) to Devin Williams (New York Mets) to Robert Suarez (Atlanta), signing in the first five weeks. The biggest sluggers signed and got their big paydays with Pete Alonso getting $155 million from the Baltimore Orioles and Kyle Schwarber returning to the Philadelphia Phillies for $150 million.
But top free-agent starters outside Dylan Cease ($210 million) haven’t signed yet and there’s countless others looking for jobs, or at least contract offers to their satisfaction.
So, what in the world is taking so long in this slow-drip of a free agency?
No one is blaming the upcoming labor negotiations with a potential lockout in December, and no one hints at collusion.
So what is it?
“The key word is methodical,’ one agent said. “I just don’t see any urgency.’
USA TODAY Sports canvased a handful of executives and agents who came up with the top five reasons for the slow free-agent pace:
1. Big-market teams – besides Blue Jays – yet to swim deep in free agency
The Blue Jays have spent $337 million this winter in free agency, signing four of the 15 free agents who have received contract of at least $30 million. Even after signing infielder Kazuma Okamoto to a four-year, $60 million contract, with a formal press conference scheduled Tuesday, they still want to add another power hitter. Their preference is to make Okamoto a super utility player.
The Blue Jays remain fully engaged in talks with infielders Bo Bichette and Alex Bregman, with outfielder Kyle Tucker also remaining a possibility.
While the Blue Jays are trying to be the Dodgers of the North, their competitors in the AL East – except the Orioles – are standing back in awe.
The New York Yankees have spent $29 million. The Boston Red Sox, who remain the favorite for Bregman, have been active on the trade market, but haven’t spent a penny in free agency.
There are 21 teams who still have spent less than $60 million this winter, including big-market teams like the Chicago Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels.
“Major markets are waiting for another market in the same market,’ another agent said. “When you do that, you lose.’
2. Teams exploring trades before spending big on free agents
The Miami Marlins are listening to trade offers for starter Edward Cabrera, with the Yankees, Mets, Cubs and Orioles all still showing interest.
The Milwaukee Brewers still are listening on offers for ace Freddy Peralta.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been aggressively shopping but now are pessimistic about trading All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte. No one has come close to meeting their price.
And if Marte is still aboard, Bregman is definitely out of the D-backs’ plans.
The St. Louis Cardinals are aggressively shopping infielder/outfielder Brendan Donovan and third baseman Nolan Arenado. And the Washington Nationals have been shopping starter MacKenzie Gore and shortstop CJ Abrams.
Teams like the Red Sox have chosen to hit the trade market instead of pushing all of their chips into free agency, landing starters Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo, as well as Willson Contreras.
As long as there’s trade inventory, it slows down the free-agent market.
3. Bullpens took priority
“I’ve never seen anything like it,’’ one veteran GM said. “Relief pitching was everyone’s first priority, it seems like. The rest of the market came to a standstill.’’
You name it, the top relievers all went, and got paid well.
The top nine relievers all were signed before the holidays, earning a combined $292 million:
- Diaz: $69 million, three years, Dodgers
- Williams: $51 million, three years, Mets
- Suarez: $45 million, three years, Atlanta
- Tyler Rogers: $37 million, three years, Blue Jays
- Ryan Helsley, $28 million, 2 years, Orioles
- Emilio Pagan, $20 million, 2 years, Reds
- Kyle Finnegan, $19 million, 2 years, Tigers
- Pete Fairbanks, $13 million, 1 year, Marlins
- Kenley Jansen, $10 million, 1 year, Tigers
4. Five-tool guys are way away from a deal
Schwarber received a five-year, $150 million from Phillies, but he was in such demand, that even the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds were in serious pursuit, with the Reds even willing to offer more until Schwarber told them it wasn’t necessary.
Meanwhile, Tucker, Cody Bellinger, Bregman and Bichette all remain unsigned, with no indication that any of them are close to a deal.
“It’s been such an abnormality than years’ past,’ one executive said.
While the Red Sox are the favorites to bring back Bregman, and the Yankees’ No. 1 priority is the return of Bellinger, the Mets are still looming in the Bellinger derby while the Cubs remain in pursuit of Bregman for the second consecutive winter.
The Tucker market is the biggest mystery. He was projected to earn a contract in the $400 million neighborhood but could have to instead take a higher AAV on a short-term contract and hit the market again after two consecutive injury-plagued second halves.
“The major markets,’ one agent said, “are still power dry.’
5. This may be the new normal
Really, the advent of free agency should be in January, and not in November for the stars of the game.
Everyone always waits for free agents’ price tags to plummet, or at least for the years to drop, and nothing ever seems to get done until close to spring training training, or even in March.
Bryce Harper and Manny Machado were the two biggest stars in the winter of 2019, and had to wait until after spring training before they got the deals they desired, with Harper signing a 13-year, $330 million deal with the Phillies and Machado a 10-year, $300 million contract with the Padres.
Bregman didn’t sign his three-year, $120 million contract with the Red Sox until spring training last year, in which he opted out, and now waits for a five- or six-year contract.
Players have learned to be patient, knowing at some point some team will blink.
“In my opinion, executives really struggle as far as decision-making now,’ one agent said. “They just collect so much more information, and then figure out how to utilize it.’
So now that the holidays are over, and everyone is back to work, will the free-agent floodgates now open?
Not so fast.
This is salary arbitration week with teams and players exchanging salary arbitration numbers on Thursday, which will consume most of their time.
Maybe next week.
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