There will be a surprising winner of the college football national championship when Indiana and Miami meet in Miami Gardens, Florida in the College Football Playoff title game.
The Hoosiers and Hurricanes started at No. 19 and No. 10, respectively, in the preseason US LBM Coaches Poll and took very different journeys to reach Monday night’s matchup.
Indiana blew through its first half of the season and stayed unbeaten with wins at Oregon and Penn State before beating Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game for its first conference title since 1967. In the playoff, the Hoosiers have dominated both Alabama and Oregon and arrive as large favorites to win their first national title.
Miami reeled off wins against ranked opponents Notre Dame, South Florida and Florida State and reached No. 2 in the US LBM Coaches Poll. Losses to Louisville and SMU in a span of three games put the Hurricanes on the outside of he playoff field. A late surge led them to being the last at-large team selected before wins against Texas A&M, Ohio State and Mississippi.
So who will emerge the winner when the teams meet at Hard Rock Stadium? Our experts offer their predictions.
National championship game: Indiana vs Miami predictions
Matt Hayes
I’m torn by this game. Indiana looks indestructible, but I can’t stop thinking about what Miami did to Ohio State: lined up, punched them in the mouth and physically manhandled them. The game is won on the lines of scrimmage, and Miami looks to have the advantage. But the Hoosiers have white-hot QB Fernando Mendoza, and consistently produce breaks and big plays by doing the little things perfectly — so the big things become routine. Indiana 30, Miami 21.
Jordan Mendoza
Can Indiana complete the dream season? Miami has been able to find ways to win on both sides of the ball during this run, but it needs a complete game in order to stop the Hoosiers. Miami punches first, but it doesn’t take long for Indiana to get rolling. The running game takes over and the Hoosiers pull away from the Hurricanes in the second half to cement the greatest turnaround in recent memory with a national championship. Indiana 38, Miami 23.
Paul Myerberg
There’s a way for Miami to score the upset. But that requires winning in two areas where Indiana never loses: on the line of scrimmage and the turnover margin. While the Hurricanes are playing well on both front, no team has been able to match Indiana’s line play. And no team is better at limiting mistakes than the Hoosiers, who lead the nation in turnover margin per game. This one favors Indiana. Indiana 34, Miami 17.
Erick Smith
Indiana is on one of the all-time postseason runs in college football. It seems silly to pick against the Hoosiers given that domination after nearly flawless performances against Alabama and Oregon. So how does Miami disrupt them? The Hurricanes can follow a similar blueprint to Penn State, which harassed Fernando Mendoza and nearly pulled off a huge upset. Even if the defense does its job, their success will ultimately come down to the play of quarterback Carson Beck. He must be at his best, and that’s a high bar for him to exceed given the talent on Indiana’s defense. Indiana 27, Miami 14.
Eddie Timanus
Unlike Indiana’s two previous opponents, Miami has the size and personnel to hold its own on both sides of the line of scrimmage. But the Hurricanes will need to have flawless execution, and they won’t be able to do it for a full 60 minutes. The Hoosiers will, and they’ll complete one of the most remarkable turnarounds the sport has witnessed. Indiana 28, Miami 17.
Blake Toppmeyer
The Hoosiers don’t have a weakness to exploit. That helps protect them from an upset. After Indiana finishes a 16-0 season, coaches everywhere will wonder which Curt Cignetti secrets they can try to steal and mimic, but replicating the completeness of this Hoosiers team will be no easy feat. Indiana 31, Miami 17.
Indiana vs Miami spread: National championship game odds
Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Sunday, Jan. 18
- Spread: Indiana (-7.5)
- Over/under: 47.5 points
- Moneyline: Indiana (-325) ∣ Miami (+260)
Indiana is a 7.5-point favorite over Miami heading into Monday night’s national championship game, according to the latest odds from BetMGM.