‘Tis the season for NCAA tournament bubble teams.
With the 2025-26 men’s college basketball regular season in the books, its time now to look to the conference tournaments. In the 68-team field for March Madness, only 31 conference tournament champions can earn auto berths into the NCAA tournament.
While some teams on the bubble can secure their bids for the Big Dance by winning their respective conferences, there are not enough of those for each of them all to qualify.
Then there are teams that are not even in the conversation for the NCAA tournament that are potentially in line to steal a bid completely by winning their conference tournaments.
Here’s a look at four teams that potentially steal bids from teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble by winning their conference tournaments in the Power Five:
Florida State (17-14, 10-8 ACC)
Florida State has quietly been one of the hottest teams in college basketball over the last couple of months. Following a loss to SMU on Jan. 24, the Seminoles were sitting at a season-worst four games below .500 at 8-12 and just 1-6 in ACC play.
Since that point, FSU has won nine of its 11 games, including three three-game winning streaks in that span. The team has found its footing under first-year coach Luke Loucks, who is following in the footsteps of legendary coach Leonard Hamilton.
Of course, the Seminoles will have their work cut out for themselves to win the conference tournament. FSU earned the No. 8 seed for the tournament and will take on No. 9 California on Wednesday, March 11. If it wins that, it will face No. 1 Duke on Thursday, March 12.
No. 4 North Carolina could potentially await the Seminoles in the semifinals, while No. 3 Miami and No. 2 Virginia are the two teams favored to get in from the other side of the bracket into the championship game.
Oklahoma (17-14, 7-11 SEC)
ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi moved Oklahoma to his ‘next four teams out’ on Sunday, March 8. That’s quite a rise for a program that looked poised to fire coach Porter Moser on Feb. 4, when the Sooners sat at 1-9 in conference play amid a nine-game losing skid.
However, Oklahoma closed out the season with six wins in its final eight games, including a four-game winning streak to close out the regular season. The Sooners have found their footing and could make some noise in the SEC Tournament.
For Oklahoma, a couple of wins in the conference tournament could position it to make the NCAA Tournament — but winning it all would guarantee entry. As the No. 11 seed, the Sooners open the tournament against No. 14 South Carolina.
If they beat the Gamecocks, they play No. 6 Texas A&M and, assuming a win vs. the Aggies, No. 3 Arkansas in the quarterfinals. No. 2 Alabama could await them in the semifinals, if they make it that far. That would likely be enough to get into the NCAA Tournament, but a win against Florida in the championship game would not only lock up a spot, but also help in seeding.
Cincinnati (17-14, 9-9 Big 12)
Following a regular season finale loss to TCU on Saturday, March 7, Cincinnati is in the first four teams out according to USA TODAY Sports’ latest bracketology. However, the Bearcats have shown throughout the regular season they can hang with the best teams in the Big 12 and are a threat to go on a run.
Cincinnati has wins over then-No. 2 Iowa State and then No. 2 Arizona on its resume. Baba Miller ― an FSU transfer ― has lived up to the potential he had coming out of Spain, before having to sit out his freshman season by the NCAA for receiving improper benefits.
The Bearcats will open the Big 12 Tournament against No. 16 Utah on Tuesday, March 10, and must face No. 8 UCF if it advances. No. 1 Arizona would await Cincinnati in the quarterfinals if it were to win that one.
Marquette (12-19, 7-13 Big East)
Marquette is the biggest reach on this list, as the Golden Eagles have underperformed all season. But could Saturday’s 68-62 upset victory over No. 4 UConn could be a sign of things to come?
The victory denied the Huskies the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament, but also set up a potential rematch in the second round, if the Golden Eagles can defeat No. 10 seed Xavier in the first round on Wednesday, March 11 to kick off the tournament.
A team seven games below .500 has likely shown us what its true colors are already. But all you need to do in March Madness is get hot at the right time and win games when they count the most.
It helps that Nigel James Jr. has seemed to play his basketball at the right time. He has averaged 21.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.5 assists over his last six games.