The stage is set for one of the most highly anticipated national championship games in modern college football history.
You know the names. Notre Dame, perhaps the sport’s defining program, fresh off College Football Playoff wins against Indiana, Georgia and Penn State. Ohio State, another heavyweight, which has responded brilliantly to another loss to Michigan to end the regular season.
The Fighting Irish needed some help from Penn State to win 27-24 in the Orange Bowl. Down 10-0 late in the first half and 24-17 in the fourth, Notre Dame tied the game on a 54-yard touchdown pass with under five minutes to play and then took advantage of a costly interception by Drew Allar to hit the go-ahead field goal with 7 seconds remaining.
After rolling over Tennessee and Oregon, the Buckeyes’ 28-14 win against Texas in the Coton Bowl wasn’t put away until an interception by safety Caleb Downs late in the fourth quarter. Despite the unclean performance, Ohio State will be the favorite against the Irish.
Another source of pregame hype comes from the conclusion of the debut 12-team playoff format. While the new format has come under scrutiny for the selection and seeding process, the tournament has yielded a marquee matchup to decide the national championship — in other words, the playoff has been a success.
Here are the early keys and biggest storylines leading into the matchup on Monday, Jan. 20, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta:
Which Riley Leonard shows up?
For a time on Thursday night, Leonard was in line to shoulder the blame for a painful loss. His costly interception five minutes into the fourth quarter allowed the Nittany Lions to take a touchdown lead, though Leonard’s scoring pass to Jaden Greathouse on the ensuing possession evened the score.
That was one of two turnovers on the night for Leonard, who entered the Orange Bowl with only six interceptions in 349 pass attempts. Overall, he completed 15 of 23 throws for 223 yards and a score and added 35 yards on the ground, easily outplaying Allar.
The Irish will need more of the same from Leonard and then some against Ohio State, only without the giveaways, since feeding the Buckeyes additional possessions is the easiest way to ensure a Notre Dame loss.
Crucially, Leonard will have to be a hammer on third down. He’s converted on 11 of 13 third-down opportunities when the Irish need three or fewer yards. Given how Notre Dame typically struggles to find explosive plays downfield, extending drives on manageable third-down tries will be one of the biggest keys of the game.
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Who can stop Ohio State?
Not Tennessee, not Oregon, not Texas. Another win against the SEC makes this surge to the championship game even sweeter for the Buckeyes.
The Cotton Bowl win showed why Ohio State is so dangerous. While the offense was unable to get Jeremiah Smith involved, the defense forced two turnovers and held the Longhorns to 58 rushing yards and a combined 6 of 18 on third and fourth down.
This group also delivered the game’s defining moment. Down by a touchdown, Texas had first-and-goal at the Buckeyes’ 1-yard line with four minutes to play. After the Longhorns stumbled back seven yards on three plays, Quinn Ewers was sacked and stripped by Ohio State defensive end Jack Sawyer, who scooped up the loose ball and went 83 yards for a score.
It won’t take perfection for Notre Dame to beat the Buckeyes. But it may take something close to perfect, especially if the OSU defense keeps this up while the passing game gets back in rhythm.
Can the Notre Dame defense stop the run?
This hasn’t necessarily been an issue all season. While the Irish rank 41st nationally in rushing yards allowed per game, that total is inflated by two games against service academies; Navy and Army ran for a combined 429 yards but lost by a combined 72 points.
But the run defense really struggled out of the gate against Penn State. After giving up a combined 125 yards against the Hoosiers and Bulldogs, the Irish gave up 141 rushing yards to the Nittany Lions in the first half. That improved dramatically in the second half, however.
Ohio State presents a different type of threat the Nittany Lions’ duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The Buckeyes are less likely to make the running game the primary focus of offense but are more explosive. See TreVeyon Henderson’s 75-yard score late in the first half against the Longhorns as one great example.
It’s no coincidence that Notre Dame’s closest games — Texas A&M, Northern Illinois, Louisville and Penn State — have come when the opponent is successful running the ball.
But one thing to keep in mind if this game comes down which team can convert on third down. While Leonard and the Irish have been very good on short-yardage downs, Notre Dame’s defense has been very solid in the same situation: opponents have just 19 first downs on 42 carries when facing third down and three or fewer yards.