Ahead of the unofficial (next Monday) and official (next Wednesday) start of NFL free agency, a massively seismic deal occurred Friday …
Sorry, let me try to responsibly tamp down the hype juuust a touch here given what you might have been exposed to on social media or 24-hour sports networks as your weekend started. The league was not, in fact, shaken to its foundations Friday night. But a 34-year-old, two-time Pro Bowl quarterback who’s never won a playoff game was traded, the Seattle Seahawks agreeing to send Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders for a third-round draft pick, No. 92 overall, according to multiple reports.
Does the move change the outlook of free agency and the draft? Probably … somewhat?
Does it appreciably change the trajectory of two franchises that missed the playoffs in 2024? Sure … to some degree – but it was obvious that the Raiders and Seahawks were already in the midst of course corrections prior to this move, which cannot become official before 4 p.m. ET Wednesday, the start of the NFL’s new league year.
And while you won’t see Seattle vs. Las Vegas in Super Bowl 60 – I’m pretty comfortable betting the mortgage on that – it’s fair to label a few winners and losers in the aftermath of this pending transaction, and they are as follows:
WINNERS
Mike Macdonald
The 37-year-old was the league’s youngest head coach in 2024, and led the Seahawks to a fairly surprising 10-7 record that fell a tiebreaker short of the playoffs. But Macdonald honed his coaching chops with the Universities of Georgia and Michigan when he wasn’t racking up nine years assisting on defense in various capacities for the Baltimore Ravens – which is to say, if you saw the 2024 ‘Hawks, you probably knew this wasn’t the type of football Macdonald wanted to play. Expect Seattle to quickly begin reverting to its Super Bowl DNA of yesteryear, which means a relentless, game-changing D coupled with a ball-control offense.
Since replacing Russell Wilson as Seattle’s QB1 in 2022, Smith has spent most of his time chucking the ball, averaging about 550 throws and more than 4,000 passing yards per season. (By comparison, Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson has averaged just a touch more than 400 passes per season since he became the Ravens’ full-time starter in 2019. Last season was the first time he eclipsed 4,000 yards through the air.) None of that is a knock on Smith. But given how heavily skewed Seattle’s passing ratio has been with him at the helm, the team’s inability to block or run the ball effectively and the firing of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb after one season, it was fairly apparent changes were coming – and that was prior to the recent release of longtime WR Tyler Lockett and fellow WR DK Metcalf’s request to be traded.
Whether or not Macdonald and longtime GM John Schneider were truly on the same page in 2024, it appears they’re quickly getting aligned now.
Geno Smith
He heads to Sin City and a reunion with coach Pete Carroll, for whom he played five of his six seasons in Seattle, which is also where the former second-round pick of the New York Jets belatedly saw his career take off. Smith is probably no more than a bridge to somewhere undetermined in Las Vegas, but that’s also what he always appeared to be for the Seahawks, too, after his recent contract negotiations with them fell apart. At least he’ll know exactly what’s expected of him after getting reacquainted with Carroll and will likely enjoy a QB1 gig for at least one more season – and might even play himself into yet another extension with the Raiders, if not an opportunity elsewhere.
Ashton Jeanty
Is the star running back from Boise State quietly rising up the draft board? After rushing for 2,601 yards in 2024 – 7.0 per carry! – he might be the best player available this year on merit, the position he plays probably his biggest devaluating factor. But with the Chicago Bears already rebuilding their offensive line via the trade market, the Jets hiring a coach (Aaron Glenn) who saw first-hand the benefit of drafting an explosive runner (Jahmyr Gibbs) in Detroit, and the Raiders now in a better position to support a bellcow back without having to lean on him inordinately, it’s starting to seem incrementally likely that Jeanty might land in the top 10 next month.
Brock Bowers
Pretty safe to say his debut season with the Raiders qualified as the greatest rookie campaign by a tight end in league history. A first-team All-Pro after catching 112 passes for 1,194 yards – he wasn’t the Offensive Rookie of the Year because Washington’s Jayden Daniels had the greatest rookie year ever by a quarterback – Bowers could be even more dangerous in 2025 with a bona fide NFL passer like Smith feeding him.
Sam Darnold
Unless this is only the first of many subsequent (and more substantial) moves, the Smith trade is almost certainly not one that’s going to put the Seahawks in position to draft Cam Ward of Miami (Fla.) or Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders. But, all due respect to former Washington Commanders QB Sam Howell (Smith’s backup in 2024), it does appear there’s an opening here – most likely for a free agent … and I’d venture Wilson isn’t returning and Aaron Rodgers isn’t coming.
If we start to connect some dots, it seems some blinking signs point to the potential arrival of recently minted Pro Bowler Sam Darnold, who – coincidentally? – worked with new Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak in 2023, when Kubiak was the San Francisco 49ers’ passing game coordinator and Darnold was Brock Purdy’s understudy in what was something of a career rehab year. If Darnold heads to the Pacific Northwest rather than serve as what would more than likely be a stopgap for the Minnesota Vikings until their 2024 first-rounder, J.J. McCarthy, is ready to take over, he would land in a familiar scheme and – presumably – not be asked to shoulder a disproportionate amount of the burden for a team that has two studs at running back in Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. And Darnold showed last season, in Week 16, that he’s comfortable playing in rowdy Lumen Field, his fourth-quarter TD pass to Justin Jefferson capping a Vikings comeback that ultimately doomed Seattle’s season.
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Darnold and the Seahawks seem very likely a match made in caffeinated heaven if the 27-year-old gets one more shot to be a franchise quarterback … but for a franchise that won’t have to pay top dollar for him and can distribute its cap and draft resources more broadly to import other players Macdonald covets and can better fill a supporting cast Darnold never enjoyed in the NFL prior to 2024. Still, with Smith gone and Metcalf possibly set to follow, Darnold could get a very enticing financial offer to move back to the West Coast.
LOSERS
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The 23-year-old wideout had a Pro Bowl coming-out party of his own in 2024, catching 100 passes for 1,130 yards in his second NFL season while establishing himself as Seattle’s new No. 1 receiver. With Lockett and, apparently, Metcalf leaving the Emerald City, no reason to expect JSN’s role will be changing. But what’s likely to change is the number of double teams and/or No. 1 corners he’s more probable to see – plus the possibility he won’t enjoy 137 targets again given the likelihood Walker and Charbonnet will be touching the ball a lot more in 2025, regardless of who the quarterback is.
Shedeur Sanders
Just because Smith, who is entering a contact year, is being re-routed to Las Vegas doesn’t necessarily mean Sanders would be out of consideration for the Silver and Black, who currently hold the draft’s sixth overall pick. But the Raiders’ desperation to upgrade behind center has certainly been reduced, and new GM John Spytek won’t have to reach, either, given all the other areas of the roster he needs to address. As for Sanders, it’s quite possible he’s a top-five pick in the draft, whether organically or if a team comes up to get him. Yet it also seems increasingly likely – especially as teams like the Raiders find alternatives – that he could find himself sliding on draft day.
AFC West
Tom Brady
The theory that his presence in his new station as minority owner of the Raiders would be a boon for recruiting coaches and players, welp … But, hey, Smith is a fine player and Carroll is a Hall of Fame coach. Yet the likelihood that either will still be here in, say, 2027? We’ll just have to see where this all goes as TB12 continues to juggle priorities in his frenetic post-playing career.
Russell Wilson
The greatest quarterback in Seahawks history … will undoubtedly merely remain part of that history. And any notion that he and Carroll might get back together after their 2022 breakup is now dead – Las Vegas preferring to surrender a Day 2 draft pick for Smith rather than simply signing Wilson from the free agency market, where his prospects already appear to be quickly diminishing.
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