- The early returns on the top 2026 NFL draft quarterback prospects have been unfavorable, with Arch Manning and Cade Klubnik among those struggling.
- Dante Moore has been one of the biggest early-season surprises behind center, and the Oregon quarterback could build a substantial draft buzz.
- Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza has been nearly flawless in his first four games, though tests against tougher opponents are still ahead.
Wait until next year.
That’s frequently been the refrain awaiting NFL teams and fans regarding the strength of the quarterback class in an upcoming draft. Of course, an industry centered on looking past what’s immediately at hand and instead gazing far down the line is partly to blame for that mentality. But after only two passers made the first-round cut in April, there seemed to be legitimate reason to believe that a sunnier outlook at the position was ahead.
The prevailing school of thought regarding the 2026 crop of signal-callers was that a group that appeared more promising for its depth rather than its top-tier talent would surely give rise to another version of Cam Ward, who shot up from off the Day 1 radar before last season to become the No. 1 overall pick by the Tennessee Titans. As September closes out, however, few – if any – of the most promising quarterback prospects in the mix for next year have entrenched themselves as surefire first-round selections, let alone worthy of a top-five pick.
That means the inflection point has arrived for a handful of players who could shape the future for several NFL teams.
With no clear-cut preseason front-runner to go No. 1 overall, many pointed to Arch Manning of Texas as the figure who had the best chance of surging past all his peers in his first year as a starter. But the ‘way-too-early’ predictions quickly proved to be exactly that, as his clear discomfort has at least temporarily tabled any conversations about his potential to be the face of a pro franchise in less than a year. Meanwhile, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, who also garnered some extremely premature consideration as a potential top choice, has also been a major disappointment in this initial stretch.
Of course, the class hasn’t been without a few bright spots. LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier has continued to build a case to be the top quarterback off the board. Miami’s Carson Beck has also helped himself after struggling mightily in 2024 with Georgia, though concerns about his velocity might be hard to shake. And several other signal-callers more likely in the Day 2 or 3 range at the moment – including TCU’s Josh Hoover, Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson and Arkansas’ Taylen Green – have stood out with strong performances.
But the wait continues for someone to push all the way to the front of the group. And there are plenty of NFL teams that could be eager to see a more robust set of options deserving of a lofty investment next April.
With two first-round picks, the Cleveland Browns have a sizable opportunity to move on from the Deshaun Watson era and this year’s acceptance of quarterback purgatory. The New York Jets and New Orleans Saints could join them as teams with uncertainty behind center that are also positioned to land early in the draft order. The Pittsburgh Steelers are due to make some kind of investment in a passer given the likelihood of Aaron Rodgers retiring after this season. And the Los Angeles Rams, who also have two Day 1 choices after April’s deal with the Atlanta Falcons, could be drawn to a possible successor for Matthew Stafford.
But while quarterbacks undoubtedly continue to be pushed up draft boards amid the massive value the league affixes to them, teams have made it clear that they won’t take passers in the first round simply for the sake of doing so. That lesson was reinforced not only this past spring but in 2022, when Kenny Pickett at No. 20 was the lone player to hear his name called in the first 32 picks.
Still, there’s plenty of season left for prospects to sway minds. Here are five players who could save this quarterback class from becoming a full-blown crisis:
Dante Moore, Oregon
If there’s a wild card capable of significantly altering the landscape of this class relative to preseason expectations, it’s Moore. The former five-star recruit had plenty of career rehabilitation to do after completing just 53.5% of his attempts with 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions as a true freshman at UCLA in 2023. But after sitting a year behind Dillon Gabriel, Moore has kept the Ducks’ offense in top form, throwing for 11 touchdowns and one interception in four contests. With his ability to extend plays, layer passes and easily push the ball downfield, almost every throw is accessible to the 6-3, 206-pounder. Yet Moore also stands out thanks to his uncommon cool. Standout Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq, who also played with Gabriel and Bo Nix, went as far as to say Thursday that Moore is ‘one of, if not the calmest quarterback I’ve ever played with.’ Given his shortage of experience, Moore could always return for another season if he falters down the stretch in Big Ten play. If he keeps this up, however, there might not be much reason to.
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
With a Football Bowl Subdivision-high 14 touchdowns and no interceptions through the Hoosiers’ first four games, the Cal transfer has perhaps fared better than any other signal-caller in the early season. And while he still needs to prove himself against heightened competition, last week’s five-touchdown outing in a demolition of a stout Illinois defense represented a sterling start to a tough stretch. So far, Mendoza has made great strides in being more discerning with his throws and better navigating pressure. The 6-5, 225-pounder might not offer the same immense physical upside as others on this list, as his arm strength and athleticism skew closer to passable than promising. But even with his limitations as a creator, there are plenty of franchises that would relish the opportunity to place a reliable rhythmic distributor at the center of their attacks.
LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
Many of the offseason discussions on who was the most likely candidate to follow the Ward trajectory landed on Sellers. The 6-3, 240-pound signal-caller entered the season having seized his place as one of college football’s most dangerous playmakers, as he’s equally adept at uncorking deep heaves as plowing over defenders as a runner. Yet he entered the fall a good bit behind many of his peers as a passer, with his anticipation and processing particularly in need of development. For a while, his progress seemed under threat after he was erratic against South Carolina State and was knocked out of a loss to Vanderbilt with a head injury. But a 308-yard, two-touchdown outing against Missouri served as a reminder of his captivating potential, as Sellers delivered dazzling downfield strikes both on the move and from the pocket. Still just a 20-year-old redshirt sophomore, Norris has time to grow and find the stability that’s largely eluded him early in his career. If he figures it all out this fall, however, he’s a virtual lock to skyrocket to the top of draft boards.
John Mateer, Oklahoma
His stock was unquestionably ticking up in the early season, but the Washington State transfer figured to pose one of the trickier evaluations given his roller-coaster play. Now it will be even harder to get a proper read on Mateer after multiple reports indicate surgery for a broken hand could sideline him for a month. The 6-1, 224-pounder’s fearless style was sure to be a selling point for many, as he repeatedly reeled off big gains as both a passer and runner by conjuring up some magic in the face of chaos. But the jump passes and other dangerous throws that he routinely utilizes won’t fly in the NFL, and he might have to demonstrate that he can dial back his other dangerous tendencies. Missing a crucial stretch of the season surely is a setback, but the first round still could be within reach if Mateer continues to showcase his creativity upon his return while making strides in some pocket-passing fundamentals.
Drew Allar, Penn State
In April, I gave Allar the nod as the early favorite to be selected No. 1 in 2026, with the expectation that the former five-star recruit would make the stratospheric leap many had long been waiting on. So far, however, he’s still the same streaky thrower that has vexed outsiders with his unpredictability on a down-to-down basis. Glimmers of his upper-echelon talent have still burst through on occasion, with the 6-5, 235-pound passer threading some of the most impressive deep completions made at this level. But breakdowns in his footwork and mechanics too often leave him wild on his ball placement for even the easiest throws. Through three games, he’s done little to remedy those concerns, managing just 686 yards against subpar competition. His pro prognosis, however, will be determined in the months to come, as a much more imposing slate of games – starting Saturday against Oregon – will reveal whether he finally can step up against top competition after repeatedly falling flat in his first two years as a starter. If he proves to be a true catalyst rather than a conduit for the Nittany Lions’ offense, he’ll have no shortage of suitors. But discussions about his ability can’t be rooted in hypotheticals much longer.