- Brand bias continues to hurt Vanderbilt, and help Notre Dame, in each two-loss team’s quest for College Football Playoff.
- Vanderbilt has lofty strength of schedule metrics, but recent results hamper Commodores, too.
- Would 10-2 be enough to qualify Vanderbilt? TBD.
Because, brand bias continues to hurt Vanderbilt in its quest to qualify for the College Football Playoff if it reaches a 10-2 record.
How else to explain why Vanderbilt is ranked No. 14 in the latest CFP rankings, five spots behind No. 9 Notre Dame? The Irish have helmet magic. Vanderbilt has women’s bowling magic.
Notre Dame has a storied brand. Vanderbilt has a doormat’s history.
Vanderbilt suffers in CFP rankings, despite solid metrics
That shouldn’t matter, but it does, because when you put the resumes of these teams side-by-side, Vanderbilt’s outshines Notre Dame’s. The Commodores enjoy the advantage in strength of schedule and strength of record metrics.
Notre Dame’s two losses, one of which occurred at home, came against teams now ranked in the top 15. Vanderbilt’s two losses, both of which occurred on the road, came against teams now ranked in the top 10.
Both of Notre Dame’s losses were close. One of Vanderbilt’s losses was close, albeit after a fourth-quarter rally.
Vanderbilt is the only team with two losses or fewer and a top-25 strength of schedule that’s ranked outside the top 11.
Spare me the eye-test business about Notre Dame’s dominance after opening the season 0-2. The Irish’s schedule eased up significantly after those first two games. Yeah, Notre Dame smashed Arkansas, NC State and Navy. It also struggled to put away meek Boston College.
Remember when Vanderbilt played an ACC team? It shattered Virginia Tech.
CFP selection committee chairman Mack Rhoades commended Vanderbilt’s wins against South Carolina, LSU and Missouri — “really, really good wins” — but he referenced Vanderbilt needing overtime to survive struggling Auburn last weekend. And, he noted Notre Dame’s seven-game win streak.
That’s the other factor at play here, in addition to brand bias: Recency bias.
Recency bias and brand hurt Vanderbilt, boost Notre Dame
Vanderbilt had the bad timing of suffering one of its two losses three days before the initial rankings. Then, it needed a white-knuckle triumph against Auburn before these second rankings.
Vanderbilt’s total body of work is still sturdy. Its recent work is shaky.
Notre Dame had the good fortune to schedule its two tough games during swimming pool season, before fattening up on the Big Ten’s worst team, the SEC’s worst team and the ACC’s worst team. Ah, to be an independent.
Don’t even get me started on Notre Dame being ranked six spots ahead of two-loss Miami, even though Miami beat the Irish.
“The committee, we really like Notre Dame as a complete team,” Rhoades said.
Vanderbilt also ranks behind No. 13 Utah, another two-loss team that has inferior strength of schedule metrics compared to Vanderbilt. The Utes, though, have been at their best the past two games.
Eye test, brand and recency trumps strength of schedule.
I’m also left to wonder what the selection committee’s old-timer retired coaches think of Diego Pavia’s ostentatiousness.
Vanderbilt football a joke no more
I used to mock Vanderbilt mercilessly. The Commodores earned every ounce of that mockery. Five years ago, before Vanderbilt embarked on a winless season, I suggested the SEC boot Vanderbilt. NIL and transfer free agency changed things for everyone. Or, at least, Pavia changed things for Vanderbilt.
In fairness to the committee’s evaluations, Vanderbilt’s defense looks vulnerable. A previously lifeless Auburn offense ignited against the Commodores.
Vanderbilt goes as Pavia goes. He goes hard. So hard, that 10-2 is on the table. Even if the Commodores reach that mark, they don’t control their destiny. Utah, Notre Dame and Oklahoma suffering a third loss would aid Vanderbilt’s quest. Vanderbilt is the SEC’s only two-loss team that might still sweat it on Selection Sunday.
And would you trust the committee to evaluate the Pavia-inspired Vanderbilt and forget the program’s past? Forgetting everything you’ve seen your entire life is tough to do, inside or outside of a committee boardroom.
Just flip on “College GameDay” and listen to Nick Saban discuss Vanderbilt. He’s been a skeptic going on two years. He can’t seem to shake the image of the old Vanderbilt that used to stink up the SEC’s joint in his coaching days.
“It’s just hard for me to recognize the fact they have elevated their program the way they have after so many years in the SEC when they were an easy out,” Saban said on air last month, hours before Vanderbilt beat LSU. “They are not an easy out anymore, but it’s hard for me to digest that.”
The committee’s struggling to digest that, too. If only Vanderbilt could get some of Notre Dame’s shiny gold helmets.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.