- The College Football Playoff picture remains fluid with two weeks left before conference championships.
- The SEC is projected to secure four spots in the playoff, in addition to its conference champion.
- Notre Dame is in a strong position for a playoff berth if it wins its remaining games.
Trying to predict how the College Football Playoff field will look on Dec. 7 feels a bit like Bill Murray waking up every morning to Sonny and Cher in ‘Groundhog Day.’
Each week of games seems to change the picture. And yet it also seems the same. Teams that move into the field quickly move out. Others seemingly locked into place get close calls. It’s just the way this thing goes. And there’s still two more weeks before conference championship games.
The one constant that appears in place is the makeup of the field. There will be five conference champions with the American joining the Power Four (sorry, James Madison). That American rep now looks to be Tulane after last week’s loss by South Florida.
It doesn’t appear that the ACC or Big 12 are going to get an at-large team. Brigham Young and Miami might have a chance, but a lot will go right for both teams. Notre Dame looks to be in good shape with two more wins. That leaves six other spots to split between the Big Ten and SEC.
Ohio State or Indiana will take one. Minus a win by Southern California at Oregon or Michigan at Ohio State, it’s hard to see more than the Ducks joining them.
Which brings us to the SEC. The league should hoover up the other four available spots. The champion and three of those positions should come from Texas A&M, Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama. Oklahoma is wins against Missouri and LSU away from joining that group. The Sooners bumped out Texas this week. The preseason No. 1 now with three losses needs a lot of help to make the field.
Seems simple. But it never seems to work that way. Come back next week where we all will wake up and go through the whole process again.
College football bowl projections after Week 12
Notes: Legacy Pac-12 schools in other conferences will fulfill existing Pac-12 bowl agreements through the 2025 season. Not all conferences will fulfill their bowl allotment. An asterisk represents a replacement pick.