Favorites could take care of business and things could go according to plan in the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and even the ACC, should Georgia Tech and Virginia cross the finish line with just one conference loss.
But of the Power Four leagues, the ACC remains the Power Four league most likely headed for chaos with just two weeks remaining until conference championship games.
That’s not great news for the conference, which might have a slew of contenders battling for a title-game appearance but could end up sending only its champion into the College Football Playoff.
A tipping point comes this Saturday. Georgia Tech could lock down a trip to Charlotte, North Carolina, by beating Pittsburgh. But a loss opens up a range of possibilities that include Miami playing for the ACC title despite two conference losses.
The other three also have the possibility of some wild permutations should upsets happen in the final two weeks.
Here’s where each race stands in the Power Four and the possible tiebreakers that will impact which teams play for conference titles:
SEC conference tiebreakers
Contenders: Texas A&M (7-0), Georgia (7-1), Mississippi (6-1), Alabama (6-1).
The conference race won’t be determined until Texas A&M meets No. 18 Texas and Alabama takes on Auburn in the Iron Bowl after Thanksgiving. That would be your two teams advancing to Atlanta if both teams win.
If A&M loses and Alabama wins, the Crimson Tide would face Georgia, which is already in the clubhouse at 7-1 and would edge out the Aggies thanks to a better record against four common league opponents. If Alabama loses and A&M wins, the Aggies will face Georgia because of the Bulldogs’ win against Mississippi.
In the case of losses by A&M and Alabama, the title game would pit the Georgia and Ole Miss, which would finish ahead of the Aggies by virtue of a stronger conference opponent winning percentage. And if the Aggies, Tide and Rebels all lose, A&M would backdoor into a matchup against Georgia.
Big Ten conference tiebreakers
Contenders: Indiana (8-0), Ohio State (7-0), Southern California (6-1), Oregon (6-1), Michigan (6-1).
As in the SEC, the Big Ten race could stick to the script: Indiana beats Purdue to secure the first Big Ten championship game appearance in program history and meets Ohio State, which beats Michigan.
At this point, there’s no reason to think the Hoosiers will faceplant against the woeful Boilermakers. If they do, though, and then Oregon beats Southern California on Saturday and Michigan tops Ohio State a week later, the loss to Purdue would drop Indiana into fourth place in the final standings and send the Ducks and Wolverines to Lucas Oil Stadium.
Let’s take that hard-to-imagine scenario off the table and lock the Hoosiers into the championship game. We will also assume no other upsets among the contenders.
Indiana would meet Oregon if the Ducks top USC and Michigan beats OSU. If USC wins on Saturday and the Wolverines win, the Trojans will finish in second place and face the Hoosiers because of a stronger conference opponent winning percentage.
In the case of an Indiana win, Michigan’s path to the Big Ten championship game requires a win against the Buckeyes and then the winner of Oregon and USC losing the following weekend — the Ducks to Washington or the Trojans to UCLA.
Big 12 conference tiebreakers
Contenders: Texas Tech (7-1), Brigham Young (6-1), Utah (5-2), Houston (5-2), Arizona State (5-2), Cincinnati (5-2).
Texas Tech is locked into the championship game by beating West Virginia next Saturday. Tech can also advance with a loss should Brigham Young lose one of two against Cincinnati and Central Florida.
The Cougars are in with a clean finish. They could also lose once and earn a rematch with the Red Raiders if Arizona State drops one of two against Colorado and Arizona. In this case, BYU breaks a three-way tie with Utah and Houston thanks to the head-to-head win against the Utes and a better record against common conference opponents than the Cougars.
Arizona State is looming if BYU stumbles. If BYU loses once and ASU and Utah win out, the Sun Devils will return to the Big 12 title game because of a perfect record against three common conference opponents. If the Utes lose once to leave a two-way tie, ASU will advance because of a win against Texas Tech.
Losses to BYU and Tech have left Utah with a very narrow path to the championship game. To get there, the Utes would need to beat Kansas State and Kansas while BYU loses twice and ASU loses once.
There is also an extremely slim possibility of a seven-way tie for second place that breaks Utah’s way thanks to a win against ASU and the highest conference opponent winning percentage.
Cincinnati has a long-shot chance which includes wins against BYU and TCU and losses by Arizona State, Utah and Houston.
ACC conference tiebreakers
Contenders: Georgia Tech (6-1), Virginia (6-1), Pittsburgh (5-1), SMU (5-1), Miami (4-2), Duke (4-2).
Georgia Tech ends ACC play on Saturday against Pittsburgh. Virginia takes on Virginia Tech next weekend. SMU still plays Louisville and California. Miami closes at Virginia Tech and at Pittsburgh.
If Georgia Tech, Virginia and SMU win out, the Yellow Jackets would finish first because of their win against Wake Forest, which beat the Cavaliers and Mustangs. Virginia would finish ahead of SMU by conference opponent winning percentage.
Virginia will face Duke if the Cavaliers beat the Hokies, the Panthers beat Georgia Tech and SMU lose one of two. Under the same criteria, Pittsburgh would face Virginia by also beating Miami in the season finale.
A lane is opening for Miami to play for the ACC crown despite losses to Louisville and SMU. To get there, the Hurricanes have to win out while Georgia Tech loses to Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech tops Virginia.