One of the wildest NFL coaching carousels in league history is finally showing signs of winding down.
With 10 head-coaching vacancies popping up, the onset of the offseason was far more active than anyone could have anticipated. But after the Buffalo Bills hired Joe Brady on Tuesday, all but three openings have been filled, and the initial rush for the top candidates is long over.
Given the myriad unknowns and extenuating circumstances when assessing what went right or wrong at the very top for any team, evaluating head-coaching hires can be notoriously difficult. With that said, here is our initial ranking of all the coaching hires so far:
1. John Harbaugh, New York Giants
On Black Monday, it seemed as though this year’s candidate pool lacked the equivalent of a Mike Vrabel or Ben Johnson. One day later, Harbaugh was thrown into the mix and became the clear headliner.
Expecting the former Ravens coach to replicate what the New England Patriots or Chicago Bears achieved in Year 1 of their new regimes would be unreasonable. Still, Harbaugh’s track record – just three losing seasons in 18 years – is the stuff of dreams for a Giants franchise tied for the fewest wins since 2017 (44).
Harbaugh was the one option this cycle who looked capable of flipping an organization’s culture, even if it required some uncomfortable shifts. Given how set in their ways the Giants have been, the transformation might not take place overnight. But Big Blue has seen sharp play-callers flame out, so inspiring hope was going to necessitate finding someone capable of addressing the very core of the organization.
In Harbaugh, they now have that.
2. Jesse Minter, Baltimore Ravens
Parting with Harbaugh only to turn to a family disciple might seem like a strange move. But in hiring Minter, Baltimore can hold onto much of what worked for the previous regime while still finding a fresh voice and direction for the franchise.
Widely lauded for both his schematic acumen and his ability to connect with others, Minter already has an extensive track record of bringing along young players. That no doubt was a major draw for a Ravens team with a top-heavy roster and a firm commitment to developing home-grown talent. In Los Angeles, Minter’s remaking of the defense took hold almost instantly. The Ravens might be due for a bit more upheaval on that side of the ball than they’re accustomed to, but Minter could help the franchise return to its roots. At the very least, he can help the unit cut down on the considerable number of lapses that became an unfortunate running theme last season.
Of course, that fails to address a pretty crucial factor: Who guides Lamar Jackson and the offense? Securing the right offensive play-caller is one of the vital early steps for Minter, and succeeding on that front might necessitate finding another answer in a year or two if his coordinator of choice flourishes and earns head-coaching consideration. But there are several promising options available, all of whom should be eager to join this staff and work with a two-time NFL MVP in Jackson.
3. Kevin Stefanski, Atlanta Falcons
Given owner Arthur Blank’s impatience in ending the league’s second-longest active playoff drought, Harbaugh understandably would have been the big prize here. But landing a two-time NFL Coach of the Year should be more than a satisfactory outcome for the Falcons.
It’s fair to wonder how much blame Stefanski bears for an 8-26 record in his final two years with the Cleveland Browns. There’s no questioning his resourcefulness, though, and that trait should come in handy as he takes on a far less imposing undertaking than the one he had been saddled with. His wide-zone scheme is bound to be a boon for All-Pro running back Bijan Robinson, and he can help compensate for the lack of wide receiver threats beyond Drake London.
The hiccup here could be in the potential disconnect between Stefanski’s tendencies and quarterback Michael Penix Jr.’s strengths, which haven’t included attacking the middle of the field, working from under center or operating with reliable precision. Stefanski might have been best off coming aboard two years ago, when the team was first finding its way with his former pupil, Kirk Cousins. But Atlanta couldn’t afford to center its coaching search on Penix, who is coming off a torn anterior cruciate ligament.
Maybe this isn’t an outright moon shot. Yet with the NFC South still looking eminently winnable, this feels like substantial progress toward at least joining the conference’s second tier of contenders. Bonus points, too, for retaining defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who revved up the long-dormant pass rush and helped several young defenders break out in 2025.
4. Robert Saleh, Tennessee Titans
Perhaps feeling some pangs of remorse after parting with Mike Vrabel and giving an unproven entity in Brian Callahan a shot, the Titans went hard at second-time head coaches this cycle. In all, 14 of the 18 candidates they interviewed had prior experience running a franchise. With Saleh, Tennessee ended up doling out a second chance to someone who has shown enough to indicate things might go smoother than they did in his first go-around.
Perhaps the optics weren’t great in the early going, as the first three hires this cycle all materialized ahead of scheduled visits with the Titans. But credit Tennessee for not being overly rigid in its process, which many assumed would be focused on pairing 2025 No. 1 pick Cam Ward with an offensive play-caller for a head coach.
Saleh did superlative work in keeping a San Francisco 49ers defense ravaged by injuries afloat, and his plan to hang onto defensive play-calling duties while serving as head coach should facilitate an expedited turnaround on that side of the ball. Though his first stop featured plenty of mishaps with cultural development and locker room management, Saleh surely took away some lessons in what not to do at his next opportunity. And in bringing on former Giants head coach Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator to guide Ward’s development, he’s gotten off to a promising start in establishing a framework for the franchise to actually compete for the first time since Vrabel’s firing.
With Tennessee having an estimated league-high $93.5 million in cap space, according to Over The Cap, and few promising pieces beyond Ward, Saleh at least sizes up as someone who should prove skillful in building from the ground floor.
5. Joe Brady, Buffalo Bills
In a vacuum, Brady is a perfectly qualified candidate who would invigorate plenty of franchises. He entered the season as one of the most prominent names on the market after deciding to stay put last winter, and his play-calling acumen might be unmatched in a thin pool of offensive-minded options.
But any assessment of the Bills’ hire has to take into account the circumstances of their puzzling firing of Sean McDermott and the even more baffling justification put forth by owner Terry Pegula and general manager Brandon Beane. Now, after giving every indication that the team needs to get over the ‘proverbial playoff wall’ that Pegula referenced, the franchise is turning to … a first-time head coach – and, at 36, the youngest in the NFL – who was interwoven with the issues that Pegula and Beane seemed to cite as grounds for McDermott’s dismissal.
Pegula seemed to center Josh Allen throughout the process, including having the quarterback shape the search for McDermott’s replacement. Viewed through that lens, Brady makes ample sense for Buffalo after he proved capable of orchestrating a versatile attack despite several glaring personnel limitations, particularly at receiver.
Perhaps the Bills took a look around at their external options and simply weren’t moved by any of the choices. (It’s worth noting that they were unable to speak with Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak given the timing of McDermott’s firing and the Seahawks’ Super Bowl run.) But after crowing about the need for change, why skew so heavily toward the familiar?
There’s clearly considerable upside for Brady here, but the challenge facing him is immense. Not only must he figure out a way to push Allen and the offense forward after the unit ranked fourth in both total yards and points in 2025, but he’ll have to do so while taking on a host of unfamiliar game-management and big-picture responsibilities. Meanwhile, who leads a defense that experienced worse talent atrophy than Beane might like to admit? The cap situation – Buffalo is currently projected to be nearly $14 million overdrawn, according to Over The Cap – is also a little foreboding for a team that has several key pending free agents worth keeping – and several more who should be brought in.
There’s a solid chance that the Bills can be a playoff mainstay and top-tier AFC contender under Brady. The problem for him, however, is that Buffalo has made clear that those accomplishments won’t suffice.
6. Jeff Hafley, Miami Dolphins
By no means is Hafley an egregious hire. After his two years as the Green Bay Packers’ defensive coordinator, it seemed as though he’d rank among the more attractive potential first-time head coaches. And with Miami bringing aboard fellow Packer ex-pat Jon-Eric Sullivan as general manager, there’s solid alignment here for a franchise that’s probably staring down a full-scale reset in 2026.
But there’s a bit more of an unknown element to him than there is for others on this list.
Hafley managed to revitalize the Packers’ defense almost immediately upon his arrival. His creativity in navigating the unit’s deficiencies at various points augurs well for a team that presents a plethora of its own shortcomings. The Dolphins could also stand to benefit from a shift in accountability after repeatedly reverting to finger-pointing under Mike McDaniel.
Still, this is a lot to take on for someone whose only prior head-coaching experience was at Boston College. The Dolphins probably made the shrewd move in riding things out with a fresh face rather than expecting a retread hire to turn things around right away. But Hafley might have a harder time than some of his peers in filling out a staff capable of accounting for all his blind spots as he takes the wheel.
7. Mike McCarthy, Pittsburgh Steelers
After Mike Tomlin’s resignation, chairman Art Rooney II made clear the Steelers wouldn’t be undergoing a rebuild. And here’s the proof.
In hiring the 62-year-old McCarthy, who has a career 60.8% winning percentage and a Super Bowl title on his resume but little postseason success to speak of in the last decade, Pittsburgh proved it prized steady stewardship above all. On some level, that’s understandable for a franchise that hasn’t known what it’s like to be truly out of the playoff hunt in the last 20 years. McCarthy has also demonstrated he’s still a savvy play-caller − his 2022 and ’23 offenses ranked fourth and first in scoring, respectively − who has unparalleled experience in leading storied organizations after his runs with the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys.
But unlike the Giants, the Steelers aren’t a team needing the floor to be raised. Pittsburgh has taken up residence in the AFC’s second tier without much of a threat of breaking through to the first, with its postseason win drought now standing at nine seasons.
It’s difficult to see how McCarthy changes that dynamic much, even if the baseline doesn’t stray too far from a .500 mark. And while the stellar quarterback play that has accompanied his past two stops might be seen as a major draw for a franchise facing plenty of uncertainty behind center, there’s not much to suggest he has a substantial advantage over the field in developing a young passer − a task the Steelers desperately need to embrace but might again resist.
Perhaps the most problematic element of this decision was the stretch run of the process. Pittsburgh held virtual interviews with both Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula − considered by many to be a leading candidate for the role − and Rams passing game coordinator Nate Scheelhaase. But rather than wait until after the NFC championship game for the opportunity to speak in person with both, the Steelers plowed ahead with McCarthy, who hadn’t been in the mix for any of the other remaining vacancies. This was the perfect opportunity for Pittsburgh to step back and consider the full scope of its options. Instead, it opted for the familiar and unthreatening choice.
In the past few years, two of the more notable respectability plays for hires − the Las Vegas Raiders turning to Pete Carroll last year and the Jacksonville Jaguars going to Doug Pederson in 2022 − have flamed out. McCarthy likely won’t go bust at the scale that the former did. But this sure feels like a missed opportunity to make up ground on the conference’s actual contenders by a franchise more concerned with the prospect of ceding it.