On Sunday, after a long and arduous wait, the calendar will turn to March.
With it will come a tense two weeks for dozens of men’s college basketball teams across the country, whose results over the final stretch of the regular season will determine whether their NCAA Tournament dreams will live or die.
Such is life on the dreaded bubble for the 68-team event.
Six months ago, it’s an anxiety-laced position few would have envisioned Auburn finding itself in. Coming off the program’s second Final Four appearance in a six-year stretch, the Tigers returned a handful of key contributors, namely guard Tahaad Pettiford, from a squad that went 32-6 while bringing in some impactful new players like Keyshawn Hall.
It’s been especially bleak lately, with six losses in their past seven games. Not all of those setbacks came against the SEC’s heaviest hitters, either. In the past 10 days, Auburn has fallen to a sub-.500 Mississippi State team and an Oklahoma squad that seems destined to make a coaching change once the season ends.
While that slew of losses has placed the Tigers in an uncomfortable position, they’ve got several important metrics working in their favor. As of Thursday, Auburn was No. 35 in the NCAA’s NET rankings, No. 37 on KenPom and No. 25 in BPI. On KenPom, it has the No. 1 strength of schedule this season, an unforgiving run of games that featured some notable wins against No. 7 Florida, No. 15 St. John’s and No. 17 Arkansas. Though it comes against 11 losses, it has five Quad 1 victories.
Conversely, the Tigers have a pair of Quad 2 losses and are 42nd nationally in Wins Above Bubble, a metric the NCAA Tournament selection committee said it will weigh heavily among bubble teams. There are some landmines lurking among their final three regular-season games, too, with matchups looming at home against Ole Miss and LSU, which are a combined 26-30.
Regardless of whether it makes the cut for March Madness, Auburn has experienced first-hand just how hard it is to move on from a legendary coach.
Here’s a look at some of the winners and losers among bubble teams from the past week of games:
NCAA Tournament Bubble winners
Statistics cited are as of Thursday, Feb. 26
UCLA
The preseason No. 12 team has had a largely disappointing season, but over the past month, the Bruins have started to elevate their play, with a 7-3 mark in their past 10 games. That spurt has been highlighted by a huge pair of home wins — against No. 8 Purdue and No. 11 Illinois. The victory over the Illini last Saturday was followed up by a 19-point drubbing of rival and fellow bubble-dweller USC, a game in which New Mexico transfer Donovan Dent had 30 points.
Just don’t get too excited about the recent success, lest UCLA’s coach think you’re raising your voice a bit too much.
Missouri
A Tigers team that had just two Quad 1 wins entering February racked up three in a 13-day stretch, edging Texas A&M on the road on Feb. 11, hanging on to beat No. 21 Vanderbilt at home on Feb. 18 and knocking off No. 22 Tennessee at home on Feb. 24. Missouri is now 5-5 in Quad 1 games, though a 4-4 record in Quad 2 matchups could prove to be detrimental to its tournament hopes.
A trip to March Madness this year would mark the first time in 13 years that the Tigers have made the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back seasons.
TCU
The Horned Frogs looked destined for an NIT berth as recently as three weeks ago, with a 13-9 mark that most recently included a 26-point beatdown at the hands of Colorado. Since then, though, coach Jamie Dixon’s squad has won five of its past six games. While four of those victories have come against teams in the bottom half of the Big 12 standings, a Feb. 10 win against No. 5 Iowa State serves as the centerpiece of an increasingly impressive resume.
TCU could ultimately be stung by some unsightly losses earlier in the season, including a Quad 4 loss at home against New Orleans and a Jan. 17 loss against a Utah team that’s 2-13 in Big 12 play.
Cal
The Calgorithm got a beneficial data point last Wednesday with a 73-69 win against SMU, giving the Golden Bears yet another win against a likely tournament-bound team (they’ve also defeated North Carolina, Miami and UCLA).
Cal’s 20-8 record is inflated a bit by a soft non-conference schedule that KenPom ranks 325th among 365 Division I teams. It will have a chance to stack up some wins to wrap up the regular season, with games against reeling Pitt, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest teams.
San Diego State
An Aztecs resume that had very much been lacking a marquee win finally got one, with San Diego State thumping Utah State by 17 last Wednesday to hand what had been a 23-4 Aggies team its most lopsided loss of the season.
While the predictive metrics like the Aztecs — they’re No. 42 in the NET and No. 43 on KenPom, as of Thursday — they’re negative-0.06 wins above bubble, ranking them only 53rd in the country.
NCAA Tournament Bubble losers
USC
After an 18-6 start, the wheels have started to come off for the Trojans, who have lost four games in a row. One of those losses came at home against an Oregon team that’s No. 107 in the NET and another came by 36 at home against No. 11 Illinois.
On Saturday, coach Eric Musselman’s team will get a major opportunity in the form of a home game against No. 10 Nebraska. With a win, USC could improve its lowly 2-7 mark against Quad 1 opponents.
Indiana
Since a double-overtime road win against UCLA that improved their record to 15-7, the Hoosiers have lost four of their past six games, including three in a row. While losses, even lopsided ones, to Illinois and Purdue can be forgiven, a home setback last Tuesday against a 12-16 Northwestern team could loom large come Selection Sunday.
Indiana is only 8-9 in Big Ten play, though coach Darian DeVries’ team is still holding on at No. 38 in the NET — even if that includes a 2-10 mark in Quad 1 games.
West Virginia
DeVries’ current team is sitting in a slightly better spot than his former one. The Mountaineers have dropped three in a row, including losses to Utah and Oklahoma State teams that are a combined 7-23 in Big 12 play.
West Virginia’s down to No. 64 on KenPom, No. 66 in the NET and its negative-2.07 Wins Above Bubble are 69th in Division I. Even wins against BYU and UCF to cap off the regular season may not be enough at this point for a team that likely needs a run in the Big 12 tournament to get on the right side of the bubble.
Santa Clara
The margin for error for teams outside the sport’s power conferences, even in a league as strong as the West Coast Conference this season, is sadly small for teams hoping to get an at-large berth into the NCAA Tournament.
The Broncos find themselves in that precarious position, with a No. 38 ranking on KenPom and a No. 41 ranking in the NET, but with two losses in their past three games, albeit against WCC powerhouses Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s. Those losses, while understandable, deprived Santa Clara of a chance to improve its 1-5 record in Quad 1 games.
Ohio State
The Buckeyes have only one non-Quad 1 loss this season — a 67-66 setback on a buzzer-beater at Pitt on Nov. 28 — but they’ve failed to do much of anything in their biggest games of the season. Ohio State is just 1-10 in Quad 1 games and is 4-6 since a 13-5 start.
It can reverse that discouraging trend, if even just temporarily, on Sunday, when it hosts No. 8 Purdue. A win against the Boilermakers could get the Buckeyes back on the right side of the bubble.