- The group of teams on the bubble for the NCAA men’s tournament is considered weaker than in previous years.
- Teams like UCLA, Santa Clara, Auburn, and New Mexico are projected as the ‘last four in’ despite having unimpressive records.
- Indiana, Virginia Commonwealth, Cincinnati, and California are currently projected just outside the tournament field.
This year’s NCAA men’s tournament bubble leaves much to be desired.
While there are some name brands hovering around an at-large bid, few have compiled the résumé to break out the first-four-out range and into the bracket.
Take the latest USA TODAY Sports stab at bracketology, where teams such as Indiana, Virginia Commonwealth, Cincinnati and California are on the outside looking in despite an unimpressive group in our last four in: UCLA, Santa Clara, Auburn and New Mexico.
The Bruins earned their way back into the field thanks to an impressive home win against current No. 3 seed Nebraska. But UCLA is still a pedestrian 10-10 in games against Quad 1 and Quad 2 competition.
Santa Clara has just one Quad 1 win, against conference rival St. Mary’s, but is 7-1 against Quad 2 teams. New Mexico remains in the bracket despite dropping two of three but it’s hold is precarious. And nothing speaks better to this year’s flimsy bubble than Auburn earning an at-large spot at 16-14 overall, 2-7 on the road and 4-11 against in Quad 1 games.
But that’s still much better than, say, Indiana. The Hoosiers are a miserable 5-12 in Quad 1 and 2 games and lost at home to Northwestern late last month. They do have wins against UCLA, Purdue and Wisconsin, though.
One bubble team to watch is Cincinnati, which seemed to have its tournament hopes extinguished after losing at home to West Virginia on Feb. 5 to fall to 11-12 overall and 3-7 in the Big 12. The Bearcats have since rebounded to take seven of eight, including key wins against Central Florida, Kansas and Brigham Young.
March Madness bracketology: NCAA Tournament projection
March Madness last four in
SMU, Santa Clara, Auburn, New Mexico.
March Madness first four out
Indiana, Virginia Commonwealth, Cincinnati, California.
NCAA tournament bids conference breakdown
Multi-bid leagues: SEC (11), Big Ten (9), ACC (8), Big 12 (8), Big East (3), West Coast (3), Mountain West (2).